Takeaways:
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Wall Street’s Bitcoin year-end forecasts range between $133,000 and as high as $200,00.
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The majority of experts agree that the persistent Bitcoin ETF flows and gold correlation will likely propel BTC towards new records.
BitcoinBTC) has bounced by over 13% in the past seven days and is inching toward its record high of $124,500.
Top Wall Street and UK Financial Institutions predict that Bitcoin could reach record-breaking levels by the year 2025.
Citigroup believes BTC will reach $133,000
Citigroup expects Bitcoin could end up at $133,000 by 2025, a new high. It implies a modest increase of 8.75% from the current levels, which are around $122,350.
In its base case, the banking giant projects stable growth, supported by robust inflows from spot exchange-traded funds (ETFs) The following are some examples of how to get started: digital asset treasury allocationsIt sees these as key drivers for Bitcoin’s next upward leg.
On Saturday, the total Bitcoin ETFs in US managed more than $163.50 BTC. Citi predicts that new ETF flows will total $7.5 billion before the end of this year, which is expected to help sustain demand.
Citi’s bear scenario, however, puts Bitcoin at as low as $83000 if the recessionary pressures increase and risk sentiment declines.
JPMorgan analyst: Bitcoin will reach $165,000 by 2025
Even after adjusting for volatility, Bitcoin still remains below gold. according The team is led by Nikolaos Paniagrtzoglou, managing director of JPMorgan Chase.
They wrote that the Bitcoin to gold volatility ratio is now below 2.0. This means Bitcoin has about 1,85 times as much risk capital in it than gold.
According to this ratio, Bitcoin’s $2.3 trillion current market capitalization needs to increase by approximately 42%. This would imply a BTC theoretical price of about $165,000 to match the estimated 6 trillion dollars in private gold held across ETFs and bars.
Gold can be viewed in many ways. Bitcoin’s traditional macro counterpartIt is on pace to achieve its best-ever annual performance.
The annual relative strength index (RSI) The XAU/USD has climbed up to nearly 89. This is its highest reading since 2012.
This is a level that historically preceded deep, multiyear corrections of 40–60%. The gold uptrend could lose momentum in the next few weeks.
Related: Bitcoin’s rare September gains defy history: Data predicts 50% Q4 rally to $170K
Meanwhile, BTC has shown an 8-week lagging correlation with gold In recent years, JPMorgan has reinforced its outlook that a Bitcoin rally will occur at the end of this year if investors move away from precious metals.
JPMorgan’s bullish forecast also assumes that spot ETFs will continue to receive steady inflows. Federal Reserve continues its rate-cutting cycle The next months will be very busy.
Standard Chartered takes the lead with a $200,000 bet
Standard Chartered continues to be the most positive among major banks. Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by December.
Like Citigroup and JPMorgan, the bank’s analysts cite sustained ETF inflows—averaging over $500 million per week—as a key driver that could lift Bitcoin’s total market capitalization closer to $4 trillion.
Growing institutional adoptionThe US dollar is weakening and the global economy has improved. liquidity conditions, could set the stage for another parabolic move similar to Bitcoin’s 2020–2021 bull run, the analysts explain.
Standard Chartered analysts describe the $200,000 case as a “structural uptrend” It is more than just a short-term rally.
VanEck expects Bitcoin to rise from $180,000 to $180,000 by 2025.
Asset manager VanEck projects Bitcoin may reach $180,000 in 2025 due to post-halving dynamics.
The firm claims that the April 2024 halving The demand for ETFs and digital assets treasuries will fuel the next upward leg.
The chart below shows that Bitcoin’s price has been reverting to previous 4-year cycles.
In the past, Bitcoin’s cycle peak has occurred between 365 to 550 days following a half-off. It has now been 533 calendar days since Bitcoin’s halving. This puts it within the historic window of time for large rallies.
Saad Ahmad, Gemini APAC’s Head of APAC told Cointelegraph Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is not the only way that it could be extended. “driven more by human emotion than pure math” You will. “very likely continue in some form” into 2026.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
