Has the Bitcoin Bull Run Ended? What Will the Next Step Be?

Bob Loukas, a crypto analyst has published a new report. video analysis Title “No Bull.” Loukas dives into the state of Bitcoin and addresses growing concerns over the possibility of an canceled bull market.

Loukas starts by acknowledging that the Bitcoin price has been consolidating for a long time. He feels that “there is now some fear creeping into the market,” Bitcoin ETFs are a good example of this. “out for quite some time” Halfing the amount “come and go,” Without leading to a significant price increase.

Has the Bitcoin bull run ended?

Loukas observes that while traditional markets are performing robustly—with “the stock market making all-time highs seemingly every week” You can also find out more about the following: “even gold making big all-time highs”—Bitcoin continues to “languish,” Altcoins include “pretty much dying a slow death.” He says that the only thing “that really works” is really speculative memecoins“, contributing to the negative sentiment in cryptospace.

But he believes that this is a development he should be concerned about “kind of normal,” Bitcoin, despite its challenges, remains a popular currency “close to the all-time highs from the prior cycle.” Loukas views the consolidation of Bitcoin’s price over eight months as a positive sign. “Eight months of consolidation is actually pretty bullish if the timing is right in the four-year cycle. Sentiment is right, it’s been reset; fundamentals, macro, I think they all look right,” He says.

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Loukas explains that the current market situation is a concern. “23 months in” The cycle has been descending since November 20,22. “just shy of a 24-month or 2-year anniversary of this cycle,” The project is scheduled to finish in November/December 2026. The he acknowledges. “quite a bit of fear that’s sort of crept into this market” Follow a “very bullish, very frothy period” The cheapest way to buy a car is by using the ETF approval Leakage will begin in the fall of 2023 and peak around March 2024.

Loukas believes that Bitcoin’s last high was in March of this year, seven months prior. “we’ve been forming these lower highs on the monthly and also to some extent a lower low structure.” Investors are now anxious about the situation. “entered the market way too late, waiting for confirmation,” Find yourself “locked out when the market went on this five straight months move,” It is impossible to provide an opportunity for a buyer to take advantage of a price drop.

Many investors are unaware of the risks involved. “rolled into a bunch of altcoins in this later period that are now down 50, 60, 70%,” Bitcoin is not a safe currency. “still up around 3x off the lows,” Many people believe they’ve not “extracted any sort of value out of this cycle” Have you ever heard of a word like “lost money over this period.” Loukas believes that this scenario is plausible “quite normal from a cycle structure perspective.”

He says that, during the current bullish phase of the market, there was no significant volatility. “typical 30% decline at any given point,” With the “biggest declines” being “mostly time-based and were only around about 20% from peak to trough before making a new high.” It is not normal behavior “threw a lot of people off” You can also find out more about the following: “made it difficult for people to get in,” As they were “looking to buy on a dip which never really eventuated.”

Loukas says that this current phase of consolidation is essential to “completely reset sentiment in order to prepare for the next phase of this four-year cycle.” Bitcoins are significant to him. “sitting here 23 months, just around 20% or so off the all-time highs of the last four-year cycle high back in 2021,” What makes it Feel? “more primed for the next phase of the four-year cycle than anything else.”

The cycle’s low point in December 2018, the high of Bitcoin at the beginning of the year, are all parallel to previous cycles. “it took 23 months to get to the price four-year cycle high to exceed that.” Similar patterns have been observed earlier in cycles with timeframes of “around 25 months” You can also find out more about the following: “around 22 months” To reach new record highs. The current cycle has achieved this landmark. “in just 16 months, much sooner,” This he largely attributes to the ETF’s news. “forced buyers in earlier in the cycle than normal.”

Loukas thinks that this timeline has created dynamic in which “we now have to rotate a lot of coins,” Allowing “a lot of whales, a lot of old-timers” You can also find out more about the following: “unlock” You can also find out more about the following: “exit and rotate,” If you want to know more about this, please contact us. “institutional players, larger account players have been accumulating those coins in this period.” The man views it as “a matter of time more than anything else,” Interpreting the current period of time as a market process “ends up erasing all that bullish sentiment” The previous phase is then allowed to be completed. “a complete separation from one phase of the cycle to this phase of the cycle”—essentially a “mid-cycle decline.”

When will BTC price break out?

Loukas, however, remains optimistic about his future. “So far in this four-year cycle, I see nothing that has changed that trajectory, nothing in the profile or the structure that tells me that this cycle is any different to the last cycles.”

He lists several reasons for his optimistic outlook. “massive inflows into Bitcoin, mostly institutional players,” Absorption of massive sales by companies like “the German governmentThe word “” and “the US government” which have had no significant effect on price. Loukas stresses that “price is down only 20%; it’s held up well.” Also, he mentions “the ETF is still there; it’s going to be pushed through the independent advisor channels,” You can also find out more about the following: “the timing is there; the macro, the fundamentals are there.”

Loukas was particularly fascinated by the patterns of cyclical nature, pointing out that “the third year of each of these four cycles is where the magic happens.” He explained that “the first year surprises everybody, that makes up a lot of ground. The second year seems like it stalls because it consolidates that first year of gains. And the third year is the mania year. And right now, beginning next month, we have the mania year that is on deck.”

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He says that “within the next 90 days… we’re going to break out of this consolidating range; we’re going to break to the upside.” He believes Bitcoin once this occurs “isn’t going to look back,” The anticipation of a certain period “may only see one or two red monthly candles and mostly green candles.” Although he does not provide specific prices targets, he admits that reaching “somewhere between $120,000 and $180,000 also seems very reasonable.”

Loukas insists on the importance of focusing attention on “time and sentiment,” Aiming for a Move “in the range where prior cycles have peaked,” This has been a “very consistent at around month 35 since the last low.” The peak is expected to be at around “October of 2025,” Giving “another 12 months to an expected or projected peak.” This is not a fixed peak. “three, four, five months earlier,” Market movements “can come in many different flavors.”

Loukas acknowledges the fact that the two next months will be a busy time for him. “a little murky,” The following are some examples of how to use “a lot of factors still at play right now.” He mentions the November 4th US election, saying thatTrump and the GOP Have really been pushing cryptocurrency and Bitcoin? “the market is certainly going to respond very, very favorably to an election win by the GOP purely because of their stance on crypto.” He clarifies, however, that he does not think “it matters one bit” Bitcoins have thrived in spite of the fact that they are a relatively new currency. “governments have been very hostile towards it.”

Loukas speculates on the possibility that market may “trend sideways into that period in November,” It is possible that an important move will not be taken until the end of the elections. He believes that “we still have around three to four weeks of some trending sideways action,” And he would be “highly surprised if this market can push into the $70,000s before the election here in the US.”

BTC is currently trading for $60,699.

Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com