Has BTC’s bull market ended?

The key takeaways:

• Bitcoin’s boom and bust cycle of four years may be broken by ETFs, Treasury bonds and macro-tailwinds.

• Before new highs, a bearish phase is not to be excluded.

BitcoinBTC(has historically been a four-year cycle tied to the halving of its supply. The prices usually peak between 12-18 month after each cut in supply before slipping into a bear market.

The situation was not different this time. Bitcoin reached a peak of $126.200 exactly 18 months after April 2024’s halving. It then dropped by over 30%.

Peter Brandt and other veteran analysts have noted that the current trend is similar to previous bearish phases. Bitcoin falling toward $25,000 The next months will be very busy.

Bitcoin traders sell at a loss

João Wedson, founder of onchain analytics company Alphractal, pointed To the Spent-Output Profit Ratio Trend Signal (SOPR), which is a metric that indicates the end to Bitcoin’s bull run.

SOPR has historically marked turning points in the market by observing shifts from profit-taking to loss-driven sales.

In bull market, SOPR stays above 1, as coins are sold for a profit. This often occurs prior to local tops. The SOPR fell towards or below 1 at the bottom. This signifies a realisation of loss.

Later, a sustained increase above 1 marked the easing off of selling pressure.

SOPR had been trending downwards since December. This showed that BTC spent was at either a smaller profit or at a lower loss. It supported the negative narrative that was based on a four-year cycle.

“You may believe that Bitcoin’s cycles have changed and that this time is different,” Wedson continued by saying:

“But, onchain analysis reveals that BTC continues to follow its fractal cycle, just as it did before, nothing has changed so far.”

Grayscale: New Bitcoin high record coming in June 2026

Several market analysts noted, however, that Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle might no longer apply.

Grayscale Investments, a US-based company, predicted on Monday that BTC’s price would reach a new record high Citing a growing economy, the report states that in 2026’s first half there is a projected increase of 5%. macro demand The US regulatory environment is supportive and currency debasement has led to a rise in US dollar.

“Fiat currencies (and assets denominated in fiat currencies) face additional risks due to high and rising public sector debt and its potential implications for inflation over time,” Grayscale has written in its latest report, adding:

“Scarce commodities — whether physical gold and silver or digital Bitcoin and Ether — can potentially serve as a ballast in portfolios for fiat currency risks.”

The Bitcoin supercycle will be similar to commodities.

Fidelity shared A similar bullish view is also expressed in the report on 2026’s crypto outlook.

Bitcoin is expected to be a major player in the future. “supercycle,” The supercycles for commodities in the 2000s lasted almost a decade.

Related: Bitcoin’s four-year cycle is intact, but driven by politics and liquidity: Analyst

Chris Kuiper’s Vice President of Research at Fidelity digital Assets, Chris Kuiper called this central view an “entirely new cohort and class of investors,” Which could allow for a more extended market expansion than past cycles.

“We’ve seen traditional money managers and investors begin to buy Bitcoin and other digital assets,” “He said,” adding,

“I think we’ve only scratched the surface in terms of the possible amount of money that they could bring into this space.”

By December 2017, US Bitcoin Exchange Traded Funds (ETFs) backed by BlackRock Fidelity and other firms held more than 1.30 Million BTC, or $114.13 Billion, a 309% rise since they were launched in January of 2024.

In their Treasury, the public companies had over 1,08 million dollars (about $100.42 billion), a group of investors that was hardly present before 2020.

Bitcoin miners’ role decreasing with each halvingNew demand from ETFs, corporate treasuries and other investors may alter the four-year boom-and bust pattern that has historically characterized Bitcoin.

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