Bitcoin’s price has already fallen by more than 22% from its mid-March peak of over $73,000. Jacob Canfield of Trading Mastery, who is a mentor in the Trading Mastery, says BTC, which has stabilised above $57,000, could see even further downside if past history is repeated. Canfield’s Latest analysis This could lead to further price declines for Bitcoin, perhaps reaching new lows that have not been seen since the start of this year.
Bitcoin price could crash another 33%
Canfield’s TradingView analysis is based on patterns that have been observed historically in Bitcoin’s prices. “Historically, Bitcoin loves to retest the yearly open levels,” Canfield makes a note. Canfield notes that these retests may confirm either a bearish or bullish trends But are consistent features in Bitcoin’s behavior. Each year since 2017, the opening price of the previous year has been tested within that year. The notable exceptions are 2023 and (2024).
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“Since 2017, the yearly open has been retested every year except 2023 and 2024,” Canfield commented. Canfield noted. COVID-19 pandemic crashSimilar patterns have been observed over the years. “Even the 2019 yearly open at $3,850 was retested during the 2020 Covid Crash,” The crypto analyst has added.
Moreover, within the first quarter of 2020 the 2020 open price was tested again. In addition, the 2021 open price was retested. It marked the lowest level before an important rally which led to a high of $69,000. collapse of FTX. “The 2022 Yearly open was a bearish retest similar to 2018 before the lows around $16,500. Similar to the 2021 yearly open retest giving us our bottom, this gave us our local top,” Canfield Observation
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Crypto analyst speculates about Bitcoin’s potential future bottom. “Here is where it gets interesting. The 2023 and 2024 yearly opens have not been retested yet. The question is, do we form a bottom at the 2024 yearly open before more all time highs or do we capitulate all the way down to the 2023 yearly open at $16,500 like we did in 2019.”
Crucial Indicators To Watch
Canfield believes that several key technical indicators are the answer. Canfield first mentions the Fibonacci level of 0.618. This indicator closely aligns with the projected 2024 yearly opening, which suggests a greater likelihood that support will come in the $38,000-$42,000 range. A price drop this low means another -33% in BTC holders.
This indicator also converges around the 2024 opening price. The 2024 price is being converged by this indicator. This reinforces its potential to be a solid support level. “This gives us a higher probability that we will form a bottom around that region and the 2023 yearly open may act like the 2017 yearly open and never get retested,” Canfield speculates.
Canfield’s analysis, despite its bearish outlook leaves space for various scenarios. It emphasizes the cyclical dynamics of Bitcoin’s market and how historical precedents can be used to forecast future trends. “Either way, I think this gives us a high likelihood target based on historical precedence for where we may find a local bottom,” He ends by urging the community to engage in further analysis and discussion.
BTC was trading at $57,479 as of press time.
Image from iStock and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
