Hyperliquid has been slowed down by the intense competition on the Perp DEXs.
In H2 2025, rivals such as Binance’s Aster gained significant traction. Analysts cite several factors, such as privacy, to determine that Lighter is the true threat to Hyperliquid.
But, before the Lighter [LIT] Sam Messari, Messari Research analyst has minimized the danger of tokens and airdrops for early users.
Sam even predicted that LIT could be outperformed by HYPE over the next two years. adding that,
“HYPE will reprice back to the ‘endgame perp DEX.’ HYPE investors won’t have to worry about fee compression for the foreseeable future.”
For Sam, Lighter’s perp volume was ‘falling off a cliff’ because the initial farming period that attracted most traders from Hyperliquid is almost over.
Source: DeFiLlama
Can Hyperliquid revenues recover?
Hyperliquid’s volume persisted in H2 declined significantly due to increased competition and reduced trading activity during Q4 2025. It fell from $396 billion to $165 billion — That’s about 60% decline in traction.
Source: DeFiLlama
The cooling off also reduced generated fees and revenues that were used to fund HYPE Buybacks.
The average revenue per week dropped by 65% from Q3’s $20 million to $7 million at the end of December.
With ongoing monthly unlocks Bears also enjoyed the HYPE, despite its low buyback rate. Sam thinks a change in fortune could occur when Lighter farmers switch back to Hyperliquid.
HYPE vs. LIT price action
Lighter has announced that it will airdrop 25% of its total 1 billion tokens to users who sign up early.
Tokenomics were similar to HYPE. Teams had a vesting period of one year and revenue was used for tokens. buybacks.
“Revenues from our core DEX product will be allocated between growth and buybacks depending on market conditions.”
Its TGE price at the time of listing was $3.3, however, it is now $2.7. This represents a decline of 21% in seven trading days. The token’s price has dropped by 16% in the last 24 hours.
The HYPE index, on the other hand was up more than 2% over the past 24 hours. It could turn short-term positive if the HYPE index clears its recent high of $26.4. Next, $27 would represent the next overheat and roadblock.
TradingView: Source for HYPE/USDT
Conclusions
- The LIT price has also dropped since the end of the airdrop farming.
- HYPE had a temporary bounce but it wasn’t clear if the rebound would continue.
“This article is not financial advice.”
“Always do your own research before making any type of investment.”
“ItsDailyCrypto is not responsible for any activities you perform outside ItsDailyCrypto.”
Source: ambcrypto.com
