Analysts believe that the bull market in Bitcoin and Ethereum is not over.
BitcoinBTCEthereum (ETHBTC is set to end a tough month with ETH dropping 9.47% and BTC falling over 7.8%. Both BTC and ETH would have their worst Februar since years if they closed the month on current levels. These voices, despite the recent downturn in crypto prices, are not panicking. Although they recognize that cycles are changing, many still believe in a bull market for the long term.
Altcoins: a changing landscape
Pentoshi is a pseudonymous cryptocurrency trader who believes explosive altcoin rallies like those in 2017 or 2021 are gone forever. “I think for alts, we will never see a run like 2017 / 2021 again. But I also said that previous to this run,” The trader has written in an X post 25th, suggesting that the cryptocurrency market is simply too large.
“The space is just way too big now, with hundreds of millions of people where as there we really did start at 0 for defi and in 2017 all alts combined were 13B. We just started at such a high floor,” Pentoshi explained. In essence, because there is so much capital in the market, it will take a lot more money to make a difference compared to previous cycles.
Pentoshi sees the next major speculative boom outside crypto. “I also believe the next bubble won’t even be in crypto, it’s likely going to be in Robotics/AI. 50% of the global GDP is labor, a 50T annual market as Kang pointed out.” Pentoshi is still optimistic about the crypto market, but the trader stresses that it’s maturing. Unrealistic expectations must be adjusted.
Bull market
Bitcoin’s halves have traditionally triggered massive bull markets, but things could be different this time. Pierre Rochard sees a new way the market is reacting.
“Historically, halvings dramatically reduced bitcoin’s new supply and sparked parabolic price increases. However, with each halving, the relative reduction in freshly minted bitcoin decreases, making this fourth halving a smaller shock to the market,” He has written in an X post.
He expects to see a more gradual, stable rise in prices, rather than a sudden, rapid increase. “align[ing] with underlying demand, rather than the sharp run-ups and crashes of the past.” Rochard points out that President Obama has also changed the U.S. foreign policy. Donald Trump Bitcoin could be regulated in a way that is more friendly.
“President Trump’s historic return to the White House is ushering in a new regulatory era for bitcoin, reversing the strict capital controls and compliance burdens previously placed on banks.”
Pierre Rochard
Rochard explains that this, along with the increasing interest from institutions, helps to solidify Bitcoin’s position within the traditional financial system.
“From ETFs that wrap bitcoin exposure into a digestible format to large companies like MicroStrategy that hold substantial reserves in BTC with intelligent leverage, the financial industry is recognizing bitcoin’s potential as an alternative asset.”
Pierre Rochard
Rochard says that he is aware of the dangers. “over-leveraged traders will continue to spark sudden liquidations, while macroeconomic events and pauses in demand inevitably cause periods of sideways price action and corrections within the bull run.” He remains optimistic in the longer term. “the long-term strategy for bitcoin remains ongoing accumulation.”
The correlation with equity
The macroeconomic climate is another important factor that influences the market. BlockTower Capital co-founder Ari Paul believes that equities will have a tough ride.
“My market take: equities in for 4-15 months of pain (I’ll guess 9 months) tied to deflationary government policies (tariffs and mass layoffs mostly),” Paul said in an X postThere is a correlation between crypto-assets and stocks, even though they don’t necessarily move at the same pace.
“Alts probably follow equities down at least at first (but they’re already down so much, even versus 2021 prices, they may bottom well before equities.)”
Ari Paul
Bitcoin is a mixture of gold and stock, according to him, so BTC should continue acting as it has been. “like a blend of gold and S&P 500.”
“If gold remains strong, than that would suggest bitcoin would outperform losing equities, but maybe not by much.”
Ari Paul
He says that the market could dip to around $73,000, before it continues on its upward trajectory. “seems plausible.” Paul is still confident that the bull market will continue, even though it may take longer than anticipated.
Big picture
The crypto community isn’t ready to quit yet, despite recent price declines. Investors see an evolving market, with better regulation, more institutional acceptance, and more sustainable growth. Bitcoin’s bull market isn’t following previous patterns but it doesn’t mean that the run has ended.
Altcoins may not see the same kind of wild gains from previous cycles, but that’s partly because crypto is no longer a niche market — it’s a trillion-dollar industry. While macroeconomic factors could cause volatility, many believe that Bitcoin and Ethereum will continue to prove their worth in the future.
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Source: crypto.news
