The Federal Reserve, which is the preferred inflation indicator, will release the Personal Consumption Expenditures data for December later today.
The following is a summary of the information that you will find on this page.
- Forecasters anticipate both headline and core PCE rising 0.37% in December (4.5% annualized), pushing core to 3.0% year-over-year — the highest since February 2025 — and headline to 2.9%, the highest since March 2024.
- BTC currently trades around $67.852, up 1.27% in one day. RSI stands at 36.86. It has recovered from the oversold level but is still showing a muted pace as traders wait for macro directions.
- BTC/ETH is currently at 34.5806, a ratio that reflects the continued dominance of Bitcoin as investors continue to be defensive in anticipation of inflation.
The Wall Street Journal Chief Economics Correspondent Nick TimiraosForecasters are expecting both headline PCE as well as core PCE in December to increase by 0.37 percent month over month, which is 4.5% on an annualized basis. This would raise core PCE by 3.0% over the past year, which is its highest level since February 2025. headline PCE Estimated at 2,9%, this is the highest level since March 2024.
This median forecast is in line with expectations. Both headline and core numbers are up 0.37% compared to November’s 0.2% headline increase and 0.16% growth.
The crypto market is a growing industry. implications are clearA higher than expected number could lead to higher expectations of longer-term rates, which would push Treasury yields up and drive the U.S. currency higher. This can be a drag on risk assets such as Bitcoin.BTCThe cryptocurrencies (altcoins) are a good alternative to Bitcoin.
However, a cooler reading could trigger rate cuts and a rally for relief.
Bitcoin’s technical setup in advance of PCE inflation figures
Bitcoin is Binance’s daily BTC/USDT charts show that BTC is currently trading at $68,852, an increase of 1.27% for the day. After a dramatic drop at the beginning of February, which briefly sent BTC down to low $60Ks and then rebounded, price consolidation is evident.
The recovery has been a success. Bitcoin has The psychological threshold of $70,000 has been reached.
The daily RSI currently stands at 36.86 with a moving average of 33.81. It indicates that the momentum is still weak but not oversold. This indicator is slowly recovering after dropping below 30 levels in the first half of this month.
The indicator of balance power remains at -3.298, showing that sellers continue to hold an edge, despite the recent stability.
A surprise inflation reading could be enough to send BTC towards the support area of mid-$60,000, while a lower number may allow BTC a new test at $70,000.
Watch the Bitcoin–Ethereum ratio
A relative strength in crypto can also be a key indicator. BTC/ETH’s daily chart displays Bitcoin at 34.5806 ETH. That is an increase of 0.69% for the session.
Recently, the pair is up from below 30 to 34 at early February. This indicates strong Bitcoin performance versus Ethereum.ETH( ) during the wider market decline. The recent consolidation around the 34–35 region suggests capital remains defensive, favoring BTC over higher-beta altcoins.
Bitcoin could continue to dominate if macro-risk aversion and inflation rise. If the print is cooler, it may be a good time to rotate back into Ethereum or altcoins.
Macro-reaction is the key
The dollar index and 10-year Treasury yields in the U.S. should be monitored by traders. Cryptocurrency has been highly sensitive to rate expectation shifts, in particular as inflation data is testing the narrative that there are sustainable price pressures.
Today’s reading could set the stage for expectations of the Fed’s future moves and for digital assets in March.
Bitcoin has rolled below the resistance. PCE may determine whether Bitcoin breaks higher or continues to roll.
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Source: crypto.news
