Here are Five Things to Look Out for in a Bitcoin Comeback

BitcoinBTCThe first week in August is a pivotal time for, as the market nervousness and a BTC surge combine.

• BTC prices are expected to be volatile in August, after rebounding from their three-week lowest levels.

• According to analysis, the current market situation is fundamentally distinct from Bitcoin’s former all-time highs in January.

• The Federal Reserve’s September rate cut is back in focus as the macro-conditions keep it on.

• Even whales reduced their exposure to Bitcoin at the beginning of this month.

• Bitcoin demand, on the other hand, is still strong and helps to put short-term nervousness in context.

BTC to be priced at $116.500 “magnet”

Bitcoin has divided opinion after falling below $112,000 in the last week. Cointelegraph Markets Pro The following are some examples of how to get started: TradingView Shows a push towards $115,000.

The belief that BTC/USD has reached an even level and the price retracement process is complete contrasts with concerns over the possibility of a larger BTC correction. preparing new all-time highs.

$BTC The chart could not be any more bullish.

Previous ATH Retest✅

Everyday Closes Above SMA50✅

BTC now looks like it will be able reach a higher ATH. pic.twitter.com/JZVFIr4Cjt

— BitBull (@AkaBull_) August 4, 2025

“$BTC Has continued its streak of setting the high or low within the first week of the month. We’ll have to see if August is going to be any different,” Popular trader Daan crypto Trades summarised in part his latest analysis On X.

“What we do know is that the current monthly high ($116K) has a very low chance of holding as we’ve never seen a monthly wick high this small in the past 4 years.”

Daan Crypto Trades has compared the recent movements of prices to what they will be in 2025. They concluded that there is not enough volatility. 

“The current move from high to low is also just ~3.6%,” He made a note. 

“There’s also a very high likelihood we make a larger move this month. The smallest monthly low to high difference within a month is about 10% for BTC in its past 4 years. This of course says nothing about direction.”

Crypto Caesar is a colleague trader. eyed A “big bounce” Compare the current prices to those seen in May when preparing for the TradFi trading weeks.

TheKingfisher, a popular blogger, has identified $116.500 as the key threshold at which BTC short positions will be liquidated.

“Most traders are probably just staring at the price action, but smart money knows this is where the fuel for a move is,” He told X Followers Sunday, Calling $116,500 a “magnet.”

Bitcoin’s trendline holds the key to price movement

The old highs were reached in $109,300 in January, Bitcoin saw a retracement which proved to be lengthy — and painful — for bulls.

BTC/USD had plummeted by April. multimonth lows under $75,000After a drop of more than 30% from the previous highs,.

After a half-year, the price of the pair has fallen almost 10% from its recent record high, causing comparisons to be made with the previous year’s prices. 

CrypNuevo’s popular trader believes there are few reasons to believe that Bitcoin will repeat its old behavior.

“Is January’s Price Action repeating now?” He asked in an X thread Sunday.

“The reversal PA was almost identical at the highs since it’s a common pattern for a pullback after reducing momentum. However, the current situation is very different and it’s unlikely PA repeats further.”

CrypNuevo reported that the exponential moving average 50 day (EMA) was lowered in January, and then shifted to resistance.

Price has only closed below this trendline once, on Aug. 2, when it was near $112900.

“In January we saw the 1D50EMA becoming resistance – I doubt we see that now. I think a deviation below it to $110k support should likely hold well,” The thread continues

CrypNuevo says that “market structure and context” The weather in January was different, as indicated by the increasing odds of a US interest-rate cut The month of September is a great time to get out and enjoy the outdoors.

Consensus again favors September rate cut

The Federal Reserve, which is responsible for the US economy and its data, will be in the spotlight as there are fewer economic reports due this week.

At their last meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell, along with other officials chose to not cut interest rates. The dispute continues between Donald Trump and the Fed.

Powell is already facing calls from Trump to resign over his policy which he views as being too restrictive and expensive to the economy.

“Powell should be put ‘out to pasture,'” Trump demanded Truth Social posted a message on Aug. 1,

A strong labor market and mixed inflation numbers have enabled the Fed to remain on course. most recent jobs figures Cast doubt on how long rates can be reduced.

CME Group data shows that the market expectations have shifted, and are back in favor of a 0.25% initial cut during September’s Fed meeting. FedWatch Tool.

Michelle Bowman Vice-Chair for Supervision, and other senior Fed officials will speak in the days to come. previously signaled That she was open to the idea of a reduction in rates for July.

The US tariffs continue to affect the earnings results.

“Volatility has returned as August officially kicks off with earnings season in full swing,” The Kobeissi Letter is summarized as a trading resource thread on X Sunday.

BTC price drop unites small and large sellers

Bitcoin dropped to a new 3-week low below $112,000 amid a continuing sell-off, affecting everyone from retail investors down to the largest whales.

The data from the on-chain analytics platform CryptoQuant, which tracked exchange inflows, concluded that there was a de-risking movement taking place.

On Aug. 1 alone, over 40,000 BTC hit exchanges at a loss compared to when it last moved — and this only from short-term holders (STHs), entities hodling for six months or less.

The exchange whale ratio (which tracks the percentage of money flowing into whale wallets) also reached a record high. “dominating” levels.

“When large deposits coincide with whales dominating these deposits, the market typically enters a phase of selling pressure and rapid decline,” CryptoQuant contributor Arab Chain writes in “Quicktake” blog posts Saturday. 

“If whales continue to deposit Bitcoin to exchanges at the same pace, further pressure on the Bitcoin price is expected.”

Bitcoin demand “still here” — analysis

CryptoQuant, after examining the demand dynamics in a wider context, comes up with mixed conclusions that should favor bulls.

Related: Bitcoin dip making ‘perfect bottom,’ says analyst: Will BTC rally to $148K?

Bitcoin’s long-term demand is not affected by price fluctuations.

“Some investors are probably starting to worry given the recent price drop, especially STH who are now either forced to realize losses or hold underwater positions. To assess whether the situation could worsen significantly, analyzing current demand is essential,” Darkfost, a contributor to the “Quicktake” Post Sunday

Darkfost has highlighted the apparent demand metric. This measures the newly mined Bitcoin against the supply which has been inactive over the last year.

“When the ratio drops below zero, it means demand has turned negative; conversely, when it rises above zero, it signals positive demand,” He summarized. 

“Currently, demand remains clearly positive, with around 160 000 BTC accumulated over the past 30 days.”

Over the last month, Accumulator wallets that only purchase BTC but do not have any outgoing transactions have increased their exposure by 50,000 BTC.

The long-term perspective of the over-the counter (OTC( ), likewise, shows a distinct trend. OTC Desk holdings have risen to over half-a-million BTC compared with just 145,000 BTC at the end of 2021.

“Whether we look at short-term or long-term demand, the picture remains broadly positive,” Darkfost is concluded. 

“There is no major sign of concern from demand-side indicators, despite recent price volatility.”

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.