Does Bitcoin have a bottom? Analysts say ‘Not yet’

Bitcoin trading is taking place in an increasingly difficult to identify market.

Bitcoin, which is hovering at around $64,000 as of this writing, has fallen by nearly 50% since its peak. The drawdown is much more shallow than the previous cycle, however the bull run did not reach as high a level.

In October 2025, the rally in 2025 was fuelled by ETF inflows and institutional demand. The market reached a record high of over $126,000.

The trend since then has been downwards, and analysts disagree on why.

Standard Chartered and some other institutional traders are bullish on Bitcoin. already reached its cycle bottom The likelihood of further drawdowns was reduced last month due to the structural demand coming from ETFs as well as treasury firms, along with improving long-term flows.

Others take a cautious approach and believe that Bitcoin may be in its final bear market stages, but it is not at bottom.

Bitcoin’s four-year cycles. Galaxy

Galaxy Research for instance argued In June, the traditional cycle signal has not reset fully. This means that further pain is possible.

Analysts are divided not only on the price target but also on whether or not to a “cycle bottom” What it means is that the market has been increasingly shaped through ETFs and macroliquidity, as well as by shifting global capital flow patterns.

Analysts still predict further decline.

Russell Thomson, Chief Investment Officer at Hilbert Capital Asset Management firm is on the more cautious side.

Thomson told Cointelegraph that he believed Bitcoin is still in a downward cycle and will likely break beneath recent lows, before it forms a stable base. The current structure, he said, is still more influenced by the global macro-conditions and liquidity than any crypto-specific signals.

Related: $60.4K Becomes ‘most important area’: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week

Thomson believes that Bitcoin will first return to the $56,000-52,000 range (summer 2024’s lows) before extending its losses to $40,000-$45,000, a region he associates to prior phases of consolidation in early 2024.

He believes that Bitcoin’s cycle is still intact and that a low could form around 2026. However, macro-political shifts may push this date forward.

“Fed rate cuts and/or [the CLARITY Act] passing could put the bottom in earlier than that,” He said.

Bitcoin’s sensitivity to global liquid conditions has been increased, he argued, causing it to behave like a “high-beta macro instrument” The word “than” is used to describe the aforementioned. “detached crypto-native asset.”

This view is echoed Citibank analysts cut the price of Bitcoin for 12 months from 112,000 dollars to 82,000 dollars on July 1st. They highlighted how Bitcoin’s increasing integration into financial markets and traditional risk assets has increased its correlation with these asset classes, macro liquidity levels and volatility rather than reduced it.

Bear market in late stages, but still not at bottom

A more positive but still cautious view comes from André Dragosch, head of research (Europe) at Bitwise.

Dragosch said to Cointelegraph the current climate is similar to a “late-stage bear market,” Multiple indicators suggest that the downside is already exhausted.

He said that the sentiment had deteriorated, reaching levels not seen since 2022 when FTX collapsed. This period is usually associated with fatigue among sellers.

Dragosch is also not convinced that the cycle’s low point has been verified. “I don’t think that we have seen the final bottom just yet, although we are probably very close,” He stressed that there is no reliable indicator to identify the bottom of any cycle.

Related: Dormant $1.9M Bitcoin tied to New York lawsuit moves after nearly 15 years

The structural change in the market was also emphasized by Mr. He, who cited the growth of ETFs, institutional trading, and the increase of off-chain trades, all of which has led to a reduction of the reliability of certain historical cycle indicators.

He added that, in spite of this, the downside risks at present levels appear to be decreasing. Bitcoin, he continued, could start outperforming AI equities within months if macro-conditions stabilize.

Source: Galaxy Bitcoin Price and Cycle Bottoms Galaxy

Galaxy’s baseline scenario indicates that, based on the liquidity and macroeconomic situation, a possible slide could be between $40,000. and $46,000.

‘When will Bitcoin bottom?’ Could be the wrong answer

Dean Chen, a Bitunix Exchange analyst, offers a more structured interpretation.

Chen said to Cointelegraph Bitcoin was still on a downward trend, one that is increasingly defined by the global competition for liquidity rather than crypto market structure.

“I believe Bitcoin remains in a down cycle, although it has entered a relatively stable valuation range supported by the structural capital base created after the approval of US spot Bitcoin ETFs in 2024,” Chen says

Chen said that while ETFs created an institutional bid more persistent, Bitcoin now competes directly with the other global capital narratives – namely artificial intelligence, equity markets and financial services – for marginal liquidity.

Related: Tim Draper says Arkham got Bitcoin wallet attribution ‘wrong’

“The bigger challenge isn’t Bitcoin itself; it’s the competition for global liquidity,” He said. “Capital continues to flow toward AI infrastructure, equities, and other high-growth opportunities.”

This, in his opinion, changes the way cycle analysis is understood.

“The wrong question is ‘when will Bitcoin bottom?'” Chen says “The more important question is: ‘when will crypto once again become the most attractive destination for global risk capital?'”

He said that the derivatives market now plays a much larger role than it did in past cycles in determining short-term price volatility, as funding rates and open interests are driving this trend.

He said that Bitcoin might not even form a V-shaped base, but rather spend a long time building up a solid structural foundation.

Bitcoin cycles that are different from previous ones

What emerges, beyond price targets is that these opposing views are at odds over the definition of Bitcoin’s cycles.

Thompson believes Bitcoin is still stuck in a downcycle driven by macroeconomics, and that the liquidity situation has not fully changed.

Dragosch is predicting a market in late stage bear where signs of exhaustion are visible even if the confirmation remains pending.

Chen says that Bitcoin has now become a direct competitor with global capital-allocation themes like AI and stocks, rendering traditional bottom calling frameworks less accurate.

This cycle it appears that the discussion isn’t just where Bitcoin will bottom out but also whether or not a “bottom” There is still one single moment.

Magazine: Bitcoin will not hit $1M by 2030, says veteran trader Peter Brandt