Galaxy Digital cut its Bitcoin 2025 target from $185,000 to $120,000 in a recent research alert distributed on November 5. Alex Thorn is the head of research at Galaxy Digital and shared screenshots via X. In the document titled “Bitcoin Outlook Update: Lowering 2025 YE Target to $120,000,” Thorn places the downgrade in the context of the a “major, multi-week selloff,” Write that. “Bitcoin is trading below $100k for the first time since late June, with other cryptos faring worse.”
Thorn stresses It is clear that this shift has a cyclical nature and not an existential one. “While bitcoin’s structural investment case remains strong, cyclical dynamics have evolved.” The current microstructure is portrayed by the firm as being a major change. “Bitcoin has entered a new phase – what we call the ‘maturity era’ – in which institutional absorption, passive flows, and lower volatility dominate.”
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This regime shift helps to explain the new Galaxy expectations, including the revised year-end price target as well as the changed cadence for the discovery of prices. Thorn writes, “If bitcoin can maintain the ~$100k level, we believe the almost three-year bull market will remain structurally intact, though the pace of future gains may be slower.” It is important to maintain a short-term perspective. “Still, we think nearing prior all-time highs before year-end is a reasonable target for short-term bulls.”
Bitcoin: Why it is Downgraded
This downgrade is a combination of several factors, starting with the distribution pattern across holders and their market capacity. Galaxy writes: “Significant coin transfers from old holders to ETFs and new institutional buyers signal maturity, not weakness, but have presented headwinds.” This redistribution—whales handing supply to passive and institutional channels—may strengthen long-term ownership but has, in Galaxy’s telling, blunted near-term momentum.
The second argument is about positioning and leverage. Thorn indicates “significant leverage wipeout from Oct. 10It is a slang term for “and” “continues to dent market liquidity and confidence.” Galaxy’s cycle-reassessment is centred on the October Flush: Forced de-risking has weakened order book volume just as distribution of large holders has accelerated. Price vulnerability remains into the latest price decline.
Rotating capital and story attention to other trades is a third component. Galaxy makes it clear that “Bitcoin started the year as the hottest investment narrative, but AI, hyperscalers, gold, and the Magnificent 7 have absorbed capital and attention that might otherwise flow into BTC.”
The diversion is also extended to crypto-adjacent pipes. “Rapid stablecoin growth has redirected venture and equity interest into fintech and payments infrastructure.” According to the note’s conclusion, this has resulted in a decline in demand for BTC direct exposure, and an increased funding challenge for Bitcoin pure-play vehicles.
When it appears, retail participation is erratic and not at the same level as before. Thorn says: “Retail never fully returned at scale post-2021; when it did, the memecoin mania fostered short-termism that is not conducive to understanding and adopting bitcoin’s long-term value proposition.” Galaxy does not expect ETFs and institutional flows without sustained retail sponsorship. “define BTCUSD behavior,” Add to that “Passive Flows Dominate… lowering volatility and moderating cycles.” The same applies to this. “maturity era” It is more of a thesis than an attack on the Bitcoin investment core.
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The policy timing is more of a catalyst than an adverse shock. It is stated that, “despite the positive rhetoric surrounding bitcoins, government purchases of these currencies have not been announced.” The note states that the US government has been very quiet “On the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve” Galaxy doesn’t attribute immediate downsides to this absence but removes an event bullish that investors had expected would happen in 2018.
Corporate Treasuries and Listed “Bitcoin-as-reserve” The play is also updated. Galaxy claims that business fundamentals will be more important than just balance sheet optics in the future iteration. “BTCTC Phase 2: The next wave of bitcoin treasury companies will mostly need revenue generation and operating businesses beyond reserve accumulation to differentiate themselves and thrive.” Also, the firm points out “poor performance of BTC treasury companiesAs part of this year’s most significant headwinds.
The factors taken together point towards a market above $100k that’s less about reflexive retail surges, and more about methodical accumulation by institutions. Galaxy refers to it as the “Post-$100k Regime,” What is the best way to get in touch with you? “Bitcoin’s ascendance above six figures earlier this year marked the transition from early-era speculation to mature, institutionalized markets.”
Conclusion: The needle is threaded between structural convictions, and cyclical prudential. “As a result of this market performance, and other factors, we are revising our 2025 year-end bullish bitcoin target from $185,000 to $120,000.”
BTC was trading at $103,093 as of press time.
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