Bitcoin’s (BTC() gains for the month have only been 2.2%. However, February might be the beginning of a new bullish trend. Since 2016, Bitcoin has closed higher 60 percent of the time during the week that ended on February 21.
Takeaways from the conference:
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The BTC has historically delivered a weekly return of 7% on average, which is better than the seasonal performance in October.
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The early-February performances have consistently signaled bearish periods. In the first three week, 2018, 2022 and even 2025 set the tone.
The seasonal impact of February on BTC
Network Economist Timothy Peterson highlighted It is no surprise that the month of February, which has been historically a bullish one for Bitcoin often exceeds other well-known months. “Uptober” In Q4 of this year, we will see the effects. According to Peterson, the driver is macroeconomic-related rather than crypto-specific.
In mid-February, corporate earnings for the full year and their forward guidance are released. These tend to be very optimistic. The outlook usually encourages risk-taking, with some investors putting their money into Bitcoin. Peterson explained.
“The two-week period for Feb 7-21 features a median weekly return of => 7% per week!!”
Peterson noted, too, that during years of correction the first 3 weeks in February are particularly important. Bitcoin rose 4% early in 2018, declined 3% in 2020, and fell 5% in 2025. All of these years ended lower.
Peterson claimed that Bitcoin was well-positioned to rebound in the event of a cooling down of macroeconomic stress indicator, like CBOE’s VIX.
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Bitcoin ceiling for 2026 is still above $200,000.
Bitcoin expert Sminston with remains Bullish on BTC’s long-cycle prospects. With used the Bitcoin Decay Channel to place Bitcoin’s top price in 2026 between $210,000-$300,000. The model, which does not provide a prediction of timing, has historically provided reliable price bands.
The data on momentum supports the longer-term outlook. Sina is the author of Bitcoin Intelligence Report. He said Bitcoin has a positive momentum despite its recent sharp decline.
The following is a list of SinaConsolidation since January has preserved the larger flow structure. The Nasdaq fell after renewed US trade tensions. Thus, the sell-off coincided not with a Bitcoin breakdown but rather a news driven move.
XWIN Research supports this viewpoint noted Bitcoin is still in a phase of consolidation, rather than being on a trend to reduce risk. While elevated long-term bond yields are limiting valuation expansion, the Realized Cap continues to rise, a sign that spot-based capital is still entering the network.
Related: Bitcoin-to-gold ratio falls to new low, but analysts say BTC’s discounted ‘setups are rare’
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Source: cointelegraph.com
