Ki Young Ju is the CEO of CryptoQuant. He has revived debate on a top-of-cycle call with a model-based prediction that Bitcoin will reach a maximum price limit around $208,000. CryptoQuant: Sharing its “Price Prediction Based on Realized Cap” Ki wrote dashboard on X. “Nobody cares about my calls anymore, but just saying I’m bullish on Bitcoin. Too much capital inflows onchain. Way too much.”
This post is a reprise of his data-driven comment from 2024 when he first argued this. “#Bitcoin could reach $112K this year driven by ETF inflows, worst-case $55K.” This framework was remarkably close. Bitcoin reached a high of $108,000 in 2024, just a hair under the $112,000 he had projected.
Bitcoin price could top $208,000
The Chart of Ki published On September 18, three timeseries are visualized derived from CryptoQuant’s realized-cap method: The spot price for BTC (black), and a model. “ceiling_price” Model (red) “floor_price” (green).
The dashboard showed that it was still a ‘1’ on 17 September 2025. “last run” two hours prior. The model is currently placing Bitcoin above the inferred bottom and below the zone it considers as overvaluation.
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The implication of Ki’s share is not a guarantee, but a statement that, given prevailing on-chain capital inflows and the realized-cap structure, the market has room—by this metric—to extend toward that $208,000 upper band.
A network’s cap value is calculated by adding up each coin based on the last price at which it was moved onto the blockchain, rather than using the market price. It tends track the cost of the investor over time. CryptoQuant’s dashboard projects dynamic “floor” You can also find out more about the following: “ceiling” In the past, bands have been used to frame spots with multi-year growth and contraction.
Ki’s new-found bullishness links those bands with what he calls surging demand, as seen in settlement flow and ETF linked capital migration on the network. It is clear that his note from February 2024 was a continuation of the previous one: he then pointed to exchange-traded products as being the main driver for an increase towards six figures. Now he points out “too much capital inflows onchain” A model circulated that placed the ceiling at about $208,000.
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Ki’s model is not an open-ended projection, but a snapshot which updates in response to changes in the market. This dashboard, which prints the $208,310 maximum today, also shows the $41,662 risk minimum. It highlights the range of possible outcomes that the realized-cap method contemplates. The $112,000 was his track record. “this year” guidance—followed by a print just above $108,000—will inevitably color how traders receive the new post.
It is still an analytical frame: the data reading of Bitcoin’s position in relation to its enveloped realized value, after half a year. US spot ETF adoption Participation in institutions is to be deepened. For now, Ki’s message is simple and blunt—”I’m bullish on Bitcoin”—and anchored in the same on-chain lens he used 10 months ahead of the 2024 peak.
If the market reaches the 208,000 dollar ceiling of the model, it will depend how the on-chain inflows are compared to macro liquidity and ETF. corporate treasury demand As well as miners’ supply behavior. His chart shows that Bitcoin, according to CryptoQuant’s bands of realized-cap, hasn’t yet reached the statistical peak in this cycle.
BTC was trading at $116.173 as of press time.
Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
