Ethereum price is nearing key resistance/support level, will $2,000 ever be in reach?

Ethereum’s price remains above $1.850. This is due to strong inflows of spot ETFs, which countered any risk-off from the renewed U.S. – Iran tensions and volatile oil markets.

According to crypto.news data, Ethereum (ETH( ) was trading near $1.865 as of press time. It had fallen about 0.3% for the day, but has gained 4.2% over the last week. The market remained cautious as the token’s midweek gain of $1,944 was not retained. However, buyers continued to support an ascending resistance line that had been formed since the low in June.

The initial U.S. inflation data was softer than anticipated helped ETH reach a price that is higher than it has been in recent weeks. According to Futures traders, the Federal Reserve is only 10% likely to increase rates at its meeting in July. Reuters.

As the Strait of Hormuz was disrupted by the US-Iran conflict, gains stalled. Brent crude briefly reached $91.42 but then fell below $88 when Iran’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs opened the door to negotiation. Reuters reports that only four ships passed through the strait Sunday compared to eight vessels a day before.

Energy costs rising could increase inflation, and restrict monetary policy for longer. This would reduce the demand for cryptocurrency and other speculative investments. Although the oil price has dropped from its highs of yesterday, there is still no resolution to the conflict in Syria and other shipping issues.

Ethereum needs to break $1,938 in order to challenge $2,000

Ethereum’s chart shows that the $1,938 horizontal support level was first to be a major barrier. This is based on the daily chart. It’s a mark which has been a strong resistance between early February and mid-June. ETH came close to that level last week, however it failed to surpass it. The former support zone is now in the hands of sellers.

The trendline that was drawn at the bottom in June is now passing through $1,850. The price has repeatedly tested this line in July, but without a breakdown. If the price closes above $1938, it would be a complete recovery of lost range and present a clear path to the psychological level of $2,000

Momentum is positive on a daily basis. The MACD line is 38.27 above its signal line of 27.83, and the positive Histogram shows 10.44. Chaikin money flow is at 0,16. This shows that net capital continues to be injected into ETH.

According According to Ted Pillows of Ted Pillows Research, the $1,850 defense has been accompanied by a whale’s accumulation.

“If Ethereum holds above this, a rally towards $2,000 could happen in a few weeks.”

On the 4-hour chart, ETH is just $1.853.92 above the 78.6% Fibonacci retracement. If that level is held, $1,946.65, which represents the highest point of the recovery measured range, will remain within reach. Breakouts at that level would confirm the move past the daily resistance area.

Short-term momentum carries less conviction. The ADX for the 4-hour time frame has decreased to 13.57. A level which is associated with weaker trend strength. Stochastic RSI is also turning lower with the faster line of 56.09 being below that slower line of 72.93. ETH could be vulnerable to further consolidating before another break out attempt.

Institutional flows counterbalanced the weakness in spot price momentum. U.S. Ethereum spot ETFs attracted $105 million Between July 13-17, their best week since April. This is the second week in a row that they have seen a rise. BlackRock ETHA made a $135-million contribution, and Fidelity FETH had a $21.56-million outflow.

The relative strength of Bitcoin against other currencies may also be a catalyst. Trader Daan Crypto Trades identified ETH/BTC tries to rise above a descending band that has held the pair hostage for nearly a year.

“If this move sustains into next week and ETH/BTC keeps grinding higher, that should bode well for many primarily ETH ecosystem coins.”

A loss of $1,850 will weaken recovery structures

Ethereum’s bullish configuration would immediately lose its foundation if it closed below the ascending Fibonacci trendline or the $1853 Fibonacci price level. The next support for the 4-hour chart is $1,781. This represents the 61.8% of the previous advance. It’s followed by $1730 which marks the midpoint between June and July.

If the decline is deeper, $1,679 or $1,615, respectively, would be exposed. As long as the low for June at $1,513 is maintained, the entire recovery will be invalidated. Returning to this area would wipe out nearly all the gains since June.

CoinGlass Hyperliquid Liquidation Map shows limited leverage around current price. The long-liquidation risk increases below $1.810, and then becomes more dense around $1.665 and $ 1,500. This could lead to a collapse if the support is lost.

Short-liquidation leverage above the market rises rapidly near $2180 and increases from $2700 to $2860. These clusters are still distant. However, a break of $2,000 would force bears with leverage to cover their positions and give the market momentum.

Ethereum is currently deciding between $1.850 and $1.938. ETF inflows and positive daily capital flows along with an improving ETH/BTC pairs support another attempt at $2,000; however, weak 4-hour trends, rising oil prices and unresolved global risks prevent a breakout.