A Macro-War, DApp, and DApp Usage Holdback on the ETH rally towards $2.5K

The key takeaways

• ETH derivatives are a sign of safety, as they help professional desks to hedge themselves against global instabilities and downside risks.

• Ethereum is still dominant due to institutional support for decentralization despite recent decline in activity.

EtherETHAfter a short rally on Wednesday to $2200, the price of sank by 6%, following a decline in US stocks as Iran’s war entered its sixth week. WTI oil price rose to levels that have not been seen since 2024, due to interruptions in global production of crude and Middle East natural-gas shipping.

As the conflict intensified, investors shifted to a more risk-off attitude. 

The US Government must now pay more than US$130 billion to US businesses in the form of refunds on tariffs. It was only a week ago that the Supreme Court ruled the President’s IEEPA tarrifs used were illegal.

Ether is still caught up in the macroeconomic firestorm, which has stunted momentum, despite an impressive 22% rebound from the $1.800 retest of February 24. The current state of the Onchain market and its derivatives reflects a significant lack of enthusiasm from bulls.

The ETH futures 30-day annualized premium lies well below a neutral threshold of 5%. This indicates a lack in demand for bullish lever. This metric has been impacted by the fact ETH is 58% lower than its August 2025 peak of $4,956. In order to determine whether the professional trading desks are anticipating further decline, it is necessary to analyze their options market.

In most cases, when market-makers and whales seek to protect themselves against price falls, the ETH option skew rises over the neutral 6% mark. This indicator can be pushed past 15% by extreme market stress.

The ETH options skew hit 7% Thursday after briefly regaining neutral levels the day before. The persistent skepticism of professional traders gives bears the leverage they need to create further uncertainty. Ether is still facing its own unique headwinds, despite external macro-pressures such as the US credit crunch and corporate layoffs.

Ethereum has a strong position to take advantage of the growth in DApps.

Following a modest upswing in February, the Ethereum network’s activity is now stagnant. For ETH to remain stable and reduce inflation, a constant demand for the blockchain’s utility is essential. Ethereum’s built-in burning mechanism relies on the competition for entry into the queue of validation, which is typically fuelled by DEX activity.

The weekly DEX volume on the Ethereum Network has recently fallen to $12.6 billion from $20,2 billion a month earlier. Over the past seven days, revenues from decentralized applications (DApps) dropped by 47% to $14.1million. The trend has been seen on other blockchains as well. DEX volumes have decreased 50% in the same 30 day period.

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Despite its weak metrics onchain, ETH has a strong position to benefit from a future increase in DApps due to the dominance of total value locked. If including layer-2 scaling solutionsThe Ethereum ecosystem is responsible for 65% of total TVL in the blockchain industry.

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This is a clear indication of the difference between Solana and Ethereum. Solana holds $6.8 Billion in TVL while Ethereum has $55.4 Billion. This is evidence that there are a preference among institutional investors Decentralization is preferred to the cheaper fees and quicker user experience offered by networks such as Solana or BNB Chain.

It is not necessary that the current weakening of Ether derivatives or onchain metrics will lead to a price crash. If ETH reclaims $2,400 it can quickly shift the market sentiment towards a bullish trend. Ether’s price is closely linked to the risk-off mood, which makes it difficult for a bullish trend to be sustained.