Bitcoin is currently trading at around $120,000. This has led to increased speculation as to where the cycle stands. This bull market, based on the data and compared with previous cycles suggests it could peak in three months. Does this still hold or is there reason to think that this time around it’s different?
100 Day Countdown
Viewing Bitcoin Growth Since Cycle Low On the chart we can tell that it’s currently 975 days since we began this cycle. Comparatively, the bull market of 2017 peaked 1,068 after the cycle started, while that of 2021 reached 1,059 following the cycle. According to historical precedents, we are now less than 100days away from the peak.
The price movement of both 2017 and 2021 has entered its parabolic cycle. “banana zone” Around this time, explosives have been reported. price increases. If you average the timing of both, it would be around October 19.
What’s different this time?
The magnitude of recent events is a significant counterpoint to historical views. Bitcoin ETF Cumulative Flows. ETFs have absorbed over 1.2 Million BTC since January 2024. A good part of this is unlikely to be returned to the market anytime soon. It has radically altered the balance between supply and demand.
Bitcoin Treasury companies also hold over 870,000 BTC. This number is growing every day. The number of BTC held by the sovereigns is also over 500,000. We could see an increase in national strategic reserve coins, which will further restrict supply. Add coins over ten years old that could be lost. (Currently, there are around 3.3 millions total so let’s round to a conservative 1.5 million) The potential non-circulating BTC supply can exceed 4 million BTC. This is more than 20 percent of the total circulation supply.
Many claim that the current cycle is different due to ETF flows and institutional adoption. However, in reality, these sentiments have been echoed by every cycle before, with a similar outcome. Although current fundamentals have become stronger, it is still speculative to assume a supercycle in the absence of hard data. Until history proves otherwise, our four-year cycles are the default.
The October Peak
Assume for a second that the cycle peaks in October. Could such an abrupt change even be possible? Absolutely. Bitcoin’s value doubled within two weeks of crossing $10,000 in 2017. Bitcoin has rallied over 100% this year, even though it took less than 100 days to reach the $100,000 mark. BTC surged by 80% after the ETF was approved. This happened in only 50 days. Bitcoin’s parabolic potential is realized quickly once the momentum starts to build. MVRV Z-ScoreOn-chain data confirms the trend with a similar rise from similar levels of data towards market peaks.
Zooming further out, the 200-Week Moving Average Recently, the price of Bitcoin surpassed $50,000. Bitcoin’s actual price crossed the 200 week MA. It is an extremely rare event and only took place once in November of 2020. BTC had risen by 212% over 90 days.
Even if we followed half of that path, BTC would be near $250,000. This is again around the middle of October. Although it can be risky to project based on just one instance in history, it is fascinating that the situation has repeated itself at an almost identical stage.
The conclusion of the article is:
Each cycle is a whisper. “this time is different”. The data indicates that the cycle will peak in 2025 Q4 despite plenty of evidence to support this, including ETF flows, institutional dominance and sovereign accumulation. Can we go beyond that to a supercycle and blow it past? It’s possible, but I would love to be proved wrong. We’ll have to wait for evidence before we can assume this story. As of now, our guide is the historic cycle.
Check out this recent video on YouTube for a deeper look at the topic. Why This Bitcoin Bull Market Might Have Less Than 100 Days Left
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
