Bitcoin’s fourth quarter in 2025 has been turbulent and volatile. BTC experienced a turbulent month of December. Prices dropped by nearly 9% while volatility spiked to levels that have not been seen since April 20,25.
Its latest update is mid-December “ChainCheck” reportVanEck’s analysts on digital assets painted a complex picture. While the activity in-chain remains low, there are signs of improvement. The speculative leverage appears to be returning, which is a cautiously optimistic outlook for those who have held their investments long term.
It highlighted differences between investor groups. Digital Asset Treasuries, or DATs (Digital Asset Treasuries), have recently been launched. actively buying the dip, accumulating 42,000 BTC — their largest addition since July — bringing aggregate holdings above one million BTC.
Contrast this with Bitcoin ETP investors who reduced their exposure. This highlights a shift towards corporate accumulation rather than retail speculation.
VanEck analysts noted that DATs have explored alternative funding methods including issuing preferred shares Instead of common stock to fund operations and purchases, reflecting a longer-term, strategic approach.
The Onchain data revealed that there was a significant divergence in the holdings of medium and long term holders. Tokens with a holding period of one to five-years have experienced significant movements, indicating profit-taking and portfolio rotation. However, coins that are held longer than five-years remain mostly unchanged.
VanEck interprets it as a sign that participants with shorter time horizons are selling assets, while the older cohorts remain confident in Bitcoin’s long-term future.
Bitcoin miners have to deal with a decreasing hashrate
Miners, meanwhile, have faced A particularly difficult environment. Network hash rates fell 4% in December, says VanEck — the sharpest decline since April 2024 — as high-capacity operations in regions such as Xinjiang reduced output amid regulatory pressures. Electricity costs have decreased for mining equipment, indicating tighter profits.
VanEck points out that historically, falling hash rate can act as an indicator of a bullish contrarian indicatorPositive 90-180-day returns have been seen often before periods of decreasing power in the network.
VanEck frames its analysis in the GEO (Global Liquidity Ecosystem Leverage Onchain Activity) Framework, which is intended to measure Bitcoin’s structural strength beyond daily price fluctuation.
In this context, improved liquidity and DAT accumulation provide a counterweight against softer measures on-chain, including stagnant new addresses and falling transaction fees.
Bitcoin’s future is complicated by macro-trends. The U.S. Dollar has weakened Bitcoin and crypto assets are still under pressure. Although precious metals rallied to levels near their three-month lows.
Parallel, the changing financial ecosystem can offer support. Market watchers point to the rising trend of “everything exchanges,” AI-driven platforms that aim to combine stocks, cryptocurrency, and prediction markets.
Coinbase was just launched last week. made an ‘everything exchange’ like move and launched an expansion of its platform, introducing stock trading, prediction markets, futures, and other features. Companies entering this space — ranging from traditional brokerages to crypto-native firms — are vying for market share, potentially increasing Bitcoin’s liquidity and utility over time, VanEck says.
Bitcoin price volatility
In spite of this, the volatility is still a key feature. Bitcoin has doubled The absence of dramatic tops and bottoms in the last two years, or near-tripling over the next three has dampened expectations. Investors can expect to see more moderate bitcoin movement in the future.
VanEck stated that the market as a whole is in a correction. The short-to-medium-term speculative activities are declining, while long-term investors remain stable and the institutional accumulations is increasing. The firm describes the current climate as one of structural recalibration, based on signs of miner surrender, low volatility and macroeconomic dynamics.
VanEck stated that as 2025 approaches, Bitcoin could be entering a consolidation period, which reflects the maturation of the broader markets. VanEck said that this could lead to some positive price movements in the first three months of 2019.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
