The crypto investors who were unable to invest in Bitcoin earlier this year could still have another opportunity. According to a cryptocurrency analyst, Bitcoin’s price may drop as high as 70% on the next bearish market.
Analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s future. While some believe that a major bear market will be a long time coming, others are more optimistic.
“I would say maybe a 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up,” Cowen told Kyle Chasse noted in an article published on Thursday that Bitcoin was a bear market during previous cycles.BTCDrawdowns were 94%, 87% and 77%.
“Does it have to happen? No, but you know, history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might.”
This would mean a sharp decline in value from the $250,000 Bitcoin
Bitcoin supporters, including BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes projected that prices would reach $250,000 this year. A 70% decline in price would reduce it to $75,000, or less.
Cowen said “If we start screaming higher in Q4 for me, it’ll just be simple like, all right, this time’s not different, I’ll just take profits back to stables.” He said he might wait to return until the middle of 2026.
Bitcoin was trading at $117.010 as of the publication date, an increase of 3.41% in the last 30 days. according CoinMarketCap is a great place to start.
Cowen says that market participants can expect a strong rally in the future, but should not underestimate just how fast it might peak.
“Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally into the market cycle top,” He said that this should be the default case.
“But if that starts to happen, just remember the top could occur at any moment, right? …No one’s going to be like this is the top,” He said.
“Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up,” He added.
ETH will surpass Bitcoin towards the end cycle
Cowen expects Ether to be released as well.ETH( “struggle against” Bitcoin will continue to outperform for several more weeks but it is expected that Bitcoin’s performance will be better at the end of this cycle.
“Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” Cowen said.
“I expect weakness through the month of October for ETH,” He added. The ETH/BTC rate, which indicates Ether’s relative value to Bitcoin, has risen by 8.56% in the past thirty days. according TradingView is a trading platform.
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Bitcoiners disagree on the future of Bitcoin’s price. Some believe it will follow its usual four-year cycles, others remain uncertain.
Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said, “I bet 2026 is an up year.” “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.
Canary Capital Chief Executive Officer Steven McClurg recently said, “I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”
Meanwhile, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor in June said: “Winter is not coming back.”
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Source: cointelegraph.com
