Crypto Analysts Not Rule Out Bitcoin 70% Drop

A crypto analyst predicts that Bitcoin may fall up to 70% during the next bear-market. 

Analysts are divided on Bitcoin’s future. Others believe a bearish market could be much closer than some think.

“I would say maybe a 70% drawdown from whatever the all-time high ends up,” Cowen told Kyle Chasse, in an interview published Thursday, noted that the previous cycle bear market saw Bitcoin (BTCDrawdowns were 94%, 87% and 77%.

“Does it have to happen? No, but you know, history would at least caution us to at least believe that it might.”

This would mean a sharp decline in value from the $250K Bitcoin

Bitcoin supporters, including BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes projected that prices would reach $250,000 this year. A 70% decline in price would reduce it to $75,000, or less.

Cowen says “If we start screaming higher in Q4 for me, it’ll just be simple like, all right, this time’s not different, I’ll just take profits back to stables.” He said he might wait to return until the middle of 2026.

Bitcoin has risen by 3.41% since the 30th day to $117,010. according CoinMarketCap.

Cowen warned that investors should be prepared for another rally, but cautioned them not to underestimate the speed at which it can peak.

“Obviously, investors are hopeful we are going to coil up and go into that final rally into the market cycle top,” he added that the basic case should be this.

“But if that starts to happen, just remember the top could occur at any moment, right? …No one’s going to be like this is the top,” He said.

“Everyone’s going to be euphoric if we start to see a move up,” He also added.

ETH is expected to outperform Bitcoin at the end of this cycle

Cowen is also expecting Ether.ETH” “struggle against” Bitcoin will continue to outperform for several more weeks but it is expected that Bitcoin’s performance will be better at the end of this cycle. 

“Until the end of the cycle, Ethereum will likely outperform right from now until the end,” Cowen says.

“I expect weakness through the month of October for ETH,” “, he said. In the last thirty days, Ether’s strength relative to Bitcoin has increased by 8.56%. according TradingView.

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Bitcoiners are divided on whether the price of Bitcoin will continue to follow its four-year cycle. Others remain unsure.

Bitwise chief investment officer Matt Hougan said, “I bet 2026 is an up year.” “I broadly think we’re in for a good few years,” Hougan added.

Canary Capital CEO Steven McClurg recently said, “I think there is a greater than 50% chance Bitcoin goes to the 140 to 150 range this year before we see another bear market next year.”

Meanwhile, Strategy executive chairman Michael Saylor in June said: “Winter is not coming back.”

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