Bitcoin has a 77% chance to reach new record highs if past BTC pricing patterns continue.
The following are key points.
- Bitcoin’s drawdown is reduced from 50 to 35 percent with the rebound of $80,000.
- In the past, similar events have led to new highs within a single year.
- Buffett’s indicator may have called Bitcoins new record high of $160,000 in advance.
BTC Price Drawdown: Odds Favor New All-Time High
The New York Times research Timothy Peterson, a network economist who released a report on Tuesday, shows how BTC/USD can recover significant losses.
“I looked at every time Bitcoin went from a -50% drawdown to a -35% drawdown (the situation we are in today),” He revealed this in a blog post.
Bitcoin dipped below $60,000 in late February, a move that brought its drawdown versus its $126,200 all-time highs beyond 50%.
Since then conditions have improved, with the current price trading around $81,000. TradingView data shows that the pair has dropped 35% from its peak in October 2025.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Peterson confirms this in the accompanying graph. Such price moves were characteristic of previous bear markets. Bitcoin bulls are more excited by what happens next.
“He added that “7 out of 9 times it hit a new all-time high within a year.”
BTC Price Drawdown Data Source: Timothy Peterson/X
Last time a recovery of this kind occurred was in the bear market of 2022, when the maximum decline reached just over 70 percent.
Onchain Analytics Platform Data Glassnode This chart shows it will take until December 2023 before this correction becomes 35% compared to the two year old highs.
The new Bitcoin record was set in March 2024.
BTC prices are dropping from their all-time peaks. Glassnode Source
Bitcoin “looks cheap” The $160,000 goal is a good start
Bitcoin has some bullish forecasts for this month, despite the uncertainty surrounding geopolitical conditions and macroeconomic conditions.
Related: BTC price target becomes $85K next: Five things to know in Bitcoin this week
Matthew Sigel of VanEck’s digital asset research department, who was comparing Bitcoin to gold, gave a conservative estimate of $160,000 for each coin.
Sigel reported that tHe so-called Buffett indicator — the ratio of the total US stock market to GDP named after Warren Buffett — implies a BTC comeback move.
“Bitcoin looks cheap,” he told X Followers on Monday
“If it regains the 35x XBT/XAU cross implied by current levels of the Buffett Indicator, we’re looking at $160k, and that’s just catching up to where equities already are.”
BTC/USD and Buffett indicator. Source: Matthew Sigel/X
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Source: cointelegraph.com
