Bitcoin’s (BTCBitwise’s recent report shows that the current market behavior is one of the most macroeconomically disjointed in many years. Global liquidity continues to surge, while BTC trails behind gold and money supply growth. Bitwise released a recent report. suggested This gap could create a large asymmetrical opportunity for Bitcoin in 2026.
Takeaways from the conference:
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Bitcoin currently falls 66% short of the total global money supply, which implies a fair value of around $270,000.
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The gold price has absorbed the majority of 2025’s bid for monetary-dilution and is now 75% higher than global M2.
Bitcoin doesn’t follow the trend of global liquidity
Bitwise Monthly Bitcoin Macro Investor reports are now available in their latest edition. argued Bitcoin’s underlying price is not indicative of its underlying bullish environment. Global liquidity has shifted firmly towards reflation. The US issues nearly $1.9 trillion per year in Treasurys, Donald Trump promised $2,000 stimulus check, and Federal Reserve quantitative tightening program (QT), which ended Dec. 1, is no longer active.
China and Canada have approved massive fiscal initiatives of $1.4 trillion. Japan has also launched a stimulus package worth $110 Billion. More than 320 rate cuts have been implemented globally in the past 24 months. Global M2 is now at a record high of $137 trillion.
Bitwise has highlighted the biggest valuation gap in Bitcoin history. BTC, according to Bitwise’s cointegration formula, is undershooting global money by approximately 66%. This implies that the model suggests a value of around $270,000. The disconnect corresponded to a hypothetical gain of +194%, if Bitcoin returned to its long-term anchor.
Bitcoin’s value is currently undervalued compared to the global expansion of money. The report notes that this dynamic matters as BTC was historically the best barometer to measure dilution in the currency due to the absolute scarcity.
Bitwise stated that gold is now overshooting the global money supply of nearly 75%. “further strengthens the case for an imminent rotation with potentially very large performance effects” Bitcoin
Related: Bollinger Bands suggest Bitcoin bottom won’t fall under $55K
Bitcoins are due to deliver strong returns when measured against gold.
Jurrien Timmer, Director of Global Macro at Fidelity said Bitcoin currently trails Gold in both momentum and the Sharpe Ratio metrics. This puts Bitcoin at a disadvantage. “polar opposites.”
Sharpe ratio is a measure of how an asset performs in relation to its volatility. This means that gold has a better performance when adjusting for risk than Bitcoin. Timmer said that while this divergence is not yet a sign of a change, it could be a compelling setup for mean-reversion.
Timmer said that Bitcoin’s long-term adoption curve remains largely the same despite Bitcoin falling below $100,000. Timmer described BTC’s limited returns parabolic as BTC is maturing. “gold’s precocious younger sibling growing up,” Still structurally sound, but less volatile.
Related: Bitcoin’s lack of price strength due to sheepish spot buyers: What happens next?
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Source: cointelegraph.com
