BTC Rebound Targets $10K, but CME Gap Clouds the Outlook

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin’s double bottom pattern could boost the bullish momentum towards $110,000.

• CME’s gap of $104,000 or less could cause a retracement in the short term.

• Short-term stress and stablecoin accumulation hint at volatility in the near future.

BitcoinBTC() performed a classic double bottom over the weekend. This led BTC to a weekly bullish close above its moving average of 50 weeks. This formation was a result of the daily block that spanned between $98,100 to $102,000. BTC tested this zone repeatedly before rebounding.

After a bullish breakdown of the structure on the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin faces resistance at $111,300. This level could be reached if momentum is maintained in short term. Onchain data, however, suggested that this rise may not be as easy.

Glassnode explained Bitcoin has recovered since the cost-basis 75th per centile was around $100,000. Near the 85th centile cost basis (roughly $108,500), which has traditionally acted as resistance in recovery movements, is where we find our next major hurdle. This metric shows where most investors bought their BTC. It is a good way to map the distribution of costs across the market.

Cointelegraph noted A potential grab of liquidity above $115,000 which is aligned with daily resistance levels, and long-side liquid near $100,000 has been exhausted.

CME gaps between $103,100 and $104,000 are also a short-term concern. CME gap occurs when Bitcoin’s price fluctuation over the weekend creates a price difference between Monday’s open and Friday’s close on Chicago Mercantile Exchange. “filled” As traders return to these levels, it is possible that BTC will briefly reverse before continuing its upward trend.

With liquidity and participation thinning out, BTC could revisit $101,000–$102,500, retesting the weekend’s one-hour and four-hour order blocks before making a decisive move higher.

Related: ‘Most hated bull run ever?’ 5 things to know in Bitcoin this week

BTC prospects could be affected by stablecoin’s strength in the short term

CryptoQuant data indicated The Stablecoin Supply Ratio has dropped to 13,1 from 18 in the beginning of this year. This is one of the lowest SSR levels since 2025. The drop indicates rising stablecoin reserves relative to Bitcoin’s market cap, a sign of offchain liquidity accumulation awaiting a market signal. 

SSR has dropped from 15 to 13, while BTC is hovering around $105,000. It seems that the buyers are still waiting for confirmations before investing their capital.

Darkfost, a crypto-analyst. observed Binance’s short-term holding (STH), which is a group of investors who hold their assets for fewer than six months, has increased by 40% since September. They now have 8,700 BTC instead of 5,000 BTC. STHs’ realized prices are around $112,000 and many of them remain in negative territory. They react more to short-term fluctuations. The selling pressure of this cohort often occurs before mid-cycle shaking outs and long-term bullish trends.

Related: Bitcoin, ETH ETFs see $1.7B outflow but whale buying softens the price impact

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.