BTC price compression may end with White House Crypto Report

The following are key points. 

• Bitcoin’s compression in price and Bollinger Bands indicate that a new range will be formed soon. 

• The early weakness in prices this week is probably the result traders cutting risks ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC meeting and an update from the White House on their crypto policy and Bitcoin Strategic Reserve.

BitcoinBTCOn Tuesday, remained in the range of $117,000-$120,000 and is expected to close at or below $118,000. BTC is expected to decrease by as much as 50%. retest underlying support The price of Bitcoin is expected to be between $114,000 and $110,000. While technicals support this move, the FOMC minutes on Wednesday and an eagerly awaited White House document describing US crypto policies and creating a strategic Bitcoin Reserve could reverse that downward trend.

The report will reveal how many Bitcoins the US Government currently holds. Traders are hoping that Trump takes further steps to create an official strategic Bitcoin Reserve. 

The Fed will also be posting its comments on Wednesday. Also, Meta Platforms and Ford are releasing their quarterly results, Robinhood is announcing the earnings of Microsoft, Meta Platforms and Ford and other US companies like Microsoft, Robinhood or Ford. There’s also US data such as Nonfarm payroll, the PMI, GDP, consumer sentiment and ISM reports on manufacturing and services.

Jerome Powell will also speak after the Fed announces its interest rate decision. CME Group’s FedWatch indicator shows Fed Funds futures price in 98% certainty that rates will remain unchanged between 4.25% and 4.5%. Powell, despite the increasing pressure of President Trump for him to reduce rates right away, appears to have decided to stay the course. He will let the Fed decide whether to raise rates or cut them based on current economic conditions. 

Today, the majority of large-cap crypto tokens have been sold, just as in prior trading days ahead of the FOMC. TRDR data shows that Bitcoin’s open interest has fallen to $49.58 Billion, down from $50.58 Billion at Wall Street’s opening bell. The selling was accelerated by long liquidations on the futures markets. Data from Coinglass show that $173.8 millions in calls for longs were made in the last 12 hours.  

Related: Bitcoin bulls aim to chase liquidity at $122K, but Q3 seasonality could stall breakouts

Good news will trigger an outbreak? 

Bitcoin’s price volatility has dropped by nearly 45% in the last three weeks. The daily range of its highs and lows has shrunk to just $2,300, down from $4,200 a month ago. The price compression is typical of periods where there are consolidations, but it tends to end with a strong direction. In this case, FOMC Minutes that match the expectations of the market and possibly bullish news in the White House Crypto Report could provide the catalyst.

Bollinger Bands also appear to be nearing a pinched-off end, which will reinforce Bitcoin’s compression of price and range growth.

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.