BTC falls below $10K but the October trend could revive bulls

The key take-aways

• Bitcoin has suffered its biggest weekly loss since March. The currency is now below $110,000.

• More than $15 billion of leveraged positions have been flushed, signalling a new risk appetite.

• The October season has traditionally been a good month for Bitcoin.

BitcoinBTCThe price of, has dropped over 5% in the past week and is now below $110,000. Short-term traders have been hit hard by the correction. more than 60,000 BTC This week, we sent a lot of people to the exchanges.

The first time in 5 months, Bitcoin was below the cost-basis for short-term holders (STH), which stands at $109700. A level like this could be a sign of stress on the part of speculative traders.

A drawdown in the market has also revealed the level of exposure to risk on the whole. Maartunn, a crypto analyst noted The analyst argued that this cleanup could help reduce market fragility, pave the way for a more balanced recovery. Analysts argued this cleaning could reduce the fragility of the market, opening up a path for a balanced recovery.

Market sentiments have also shifted dramatically. Axel Adler Jr. is a Bitcoin analyst. noted The Advanced Sentiment Index fell from 86% (extremely positive) to 15% (bearish), in just two weeks. While zones below 20% often trigger technical bounces, Adler Jr. stressed that sustained recovery will require sentiment to climb back above 40–45% with the 30-day moving average trending higher.

Distribution among long-term investors (LTHs) was stable remained At $76.7 millions per week, the market is subdued. While only 1.5% STH has a negative profit margin, the majority is still profitable, which limits the risks of forced liquidation. 

Adler Jr. warned that the risk of capitulation would increase if STH losses exceed 10%, and a market value falls below its realized value.

Related: Bitcoin sees most fear since $83K as analysis eyes ‘turning point’

The October seasonality to the rescue

Bitcoin is still on a similar path to its historical seasonality, even though the picture appeared fragile in the short term. September typically delivers negative returns, averaging −3.43%, and BTC has so far managed to remain slightly positive at +0.68%.

Timothy Peterson is an economist with the Bitcoin network and he suggested that this latest decline fits in nicely with past trends. “This is the September capitulation,” Peterson said, “On my daily tracking sheet, Sept. 25 is the lowest median value. Bitcoin finishes the next five days higher 80% of the time, with an average gain of 1.7%.”

Peterson highlighted It is estimated that Bitcoin will perform 60% better after October 3 with an increased probability for gains to continue through June. According to the economist, there is a 50% probability that Bitcoin will reach $200,000 in mid-2026 due to seasonal bull phases occurring between October and Juni.

The history also gives weight to optimism. Bitcoin has been closing October every year in green since 2019, with an average return of 21.89%. BTC had a gain of 5.53% even during the bear-market in 2022. If this pattern continues, then the current downturn may be soon replaced by a renewed upswing as the markets enter their most seasonal bullish period.

Related: Bitcoin crumbles below $109K, but data shows buyers stepping in

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making any kind of decision.