Galaxy Digital’s report on the latest quantum computing risks to Bitcoin says that the threat is real but the efforts underway to secure the network are also.
Its own research frames Developers are already working on tools to reshape the way the network protects billions of dollars.
The concern revolves around a very simple idea. Bitcoin uses cryptographic signatures as a way to verify ownership. The signatures are secure because they use elliptic curvature cryptography.
Quantum Computing: How it could destroy Bitcoin
The quantum computer is a sufficiently advanced machine could break that assumptionThis allows an attacker the ability to create a new private key using a publicly available one, thus spending funds without permission.
In the industry, this scenario is called: “Q-day,” The moment that a cryptographically significant quantum computer It is now possible to achieve this. Timeframes are still uncertain. There is no consensus among the experts, and estimates range between years and decades. According to the report, uncertainty itself is part of the problem. Bitcoin’s structure is decentralized, so upgrades can take years and not just months.
Risk is still uneven. Today, Bitcoin remains largely unexposed.
The wallets reveal the public key only when money is spent. This means that coins hidden behind hashed address remain hidden.
Two main situations lead to vulnerability: coins that have public keys visible onchain and coins during transit.
Bitcoins at risk
Galaxy quotes estimates that suggest millions of bitcoins could fall under the first category. This includes funds associated with early network activity as well as long-dormant Wallets.
The challenge posed by these coins is unique. They are often linked to early adopters or even Satoshi, the pseudonymous inventor. These holdings may become targets if quantum technologies arrive before protection measures.
There are implications beyond personal losses. This sudden opening of supply that has been dormant could cause ripples through the market, putting pressure on pricing and mining incentives. underpin Bitcoin’s security. This is a risk that affects the entire system, and not just one particular flaw.
But the tone of research remains measured. Instead of alarming, the report highlights a growing body work to prepare the network. Pay-to Merkle Root is one of the most popular proposals. outlined Bitcoin Improvement Proposal 360.
By eliminating public keys that are always visible, the design reduces attack surfaces for threats over time.
Some ideas are more broad-based. Another proposal is called “Hourglass,” In a worst case scenario, limiting the speed at which coins can be used in an attempt to limit their impact. It is important to not prevent but rather to delay access to the markets, allowing them to adjust to any potential shocks.
Also, there is a move towards new cryptography. Hash-based schemes of signature, like SPHINCS+ have been identified as potential candidates for the post-quantum era. The mathematical assumptions used in these systems differ from the ones currently being used. They are considered by some researchers to be a conservative basis.
Post-Quantum cryptography brings tradeoffs
The cost-effectiveness of the transaction is sacrificed. Increased signature size could result in larger transactions and use of network resources.
Developers are also exploring alternate plans. A proposal proposes to use a process of commit and reveal that would protect the transactions, even if there was a quantum leap before the new cryptography could be deployed. A second line of research focuses on proofs that require no prior knowledge to enable users to prove ownership without divulging sensitive data.
Together, they suggest an layered defence. A single solution will not solve the problem. The strategy is more like a toolkit with different protections for different exposure levels and different urgency.
It’s not always a technical question. Bitcoin does not have a central authority that can mandate change. Each upgrade is dependent on the coordination of developers, miner, exchanges and users. In the past, major upgrades such as SegWit or Taproot took many years to implement and sparked heated debate.
Quantum preparation could be even more complicated. Several proposals deal with sensitive topics, including the question of whether coins not migrated to safer formats will lose their spending ability. Some of these ideas are philosophical in nature, raising questions concerning the rights to property and social contract.
Still, the report highlights a significant difference compared to past conflicts. Quantum risk is external. This does not create a rift in the Bitcoin community based on economics or different visions about Bitcoin’s possible future. The threat is shared.
Everyone, including long-term owners and infrastructure providers, is motivated to ensure the security of the network.
The report concludes that it is less important whether quantum computers are available and more about whether decentralized networks can coordinate on time.
It is more likely that the solution will be found through gradual change than by sudden changes, just as it has been in much of Bitcoin’s history.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
