Bitcoin’s latest tariff war may take BTC to $80,000

BitcoinBTCAs the week starts, the markets are held captive by uncertainty over global trade tariffs.

• Bitcoin falls below $92,000. However, traders are warning that there is a much more significant support retest coming.

• The focus is once again on tariffs as analysts agree that the conditions are likely to worsen before risk assets continue their bull market.

• Bitcoin remains confident of copying the gold and silver prices.

• The US macro-data is about to be released as the Fed’s rate reductions fade away.

• Bitcoin has already laid the groundwork for a long-term uptrend.

Price action on Bitcoin: Guaranteed volatility

Bitcoin saw snap losses as US futures markets opened — a move that many expected based on current tariff talk.

Risk assets tumbled in accordance with several of the infamous events from 2025. 

BTC/USD dropped briefly below $92,000, before recovering. TradingView.

“Get ready for a volatile week ahead!” CrypNuevo trader summarizes his latest article X analysis thread.

CrypNuevo, like others, expected that the market would be volatile due to a resurgence of uncertainty. Due to the US Martin Luther King, Jr. Holiday, full market impact will be seen only on Tuesday.

“Markets don’t like uncertainty, but markets like when the uncertainty disappears. So I’m leaning to some downside pressure pushing price back inside the range and potentially trading into the range lows, before any real reversal,” He continued.

Important support levels include the 2026 yearly open around $87,000, as well as the range lows at $80,500 — both of which are now targets.

Looking at the exchange order book, however, shows that long liquidations are increasing below the annual open. This increases the likelihood of a lower liquidity run.

“Based on all of this, we still consider the most likely scenario that there is a shakeout in the stock market causing Bitcoin to drop back inside the range and trading towards the range lows in the coming weeks,” CrypNuevo added.

Trader Daan Crypto Trades nonetheless warned that a key breakout level from earlier — the 2025 yearly open at $93,500 — was now lost.

$BTC TradFi reacted to new tariffs that were announced at the weekend by moving straight down the ladder from futures.

The price has found some support at the 4H 200EMA but lost its breakout level.

This still has not been a market which I’m actively trading, which I am… pic.twitter.com/FSIxgWrnIM

— Daan Crypto Trades (@DaanCrypto) January 19, 2026

“It is essential for the bulls to hold this breakout after 2 months of sideways price action,” He told Sunday, X follows. 

“If price falls back down below $93K-$94K, then this was just a liquidity grab in a larger down trend.”

Tariffs are a guarantee of a chaotic week

Risk-asset investors are once again on high alert as tensions between the US, EU and Greenland escalate.

When futures were opened Sunday night, the markets immediately reacted, creating volatility, even though Wall Street was closed on Monday in honor of Martin Luther King Jr.

The retaliatory actions are already flying The two sides may also cancel bilateral trade negotiations that were a result of previous tariff discussions last year. From February 1, the US will impose tariffs of up to 25 percent on Denmark, Norway and Sweden, France, Germany UK, Netherlands and Finland. 

You can also read about the advantages of using Cointelegraph reportedCrypto and stock prices were sensitive to news relating to tariffs throughout 2025. Bitcoin’s local price fell to a new low in April of under $75,000 following US President Donald Trump’s tariff “Liberation Day.”

Commentators wonder whether the new trade scandal will follow a similar path.

“President Trump ALWAYS leads with a punishing and threatening message, it’s part of his negotiation tactic. And, it has worked for him,” The Kobeissi Letter is a trading resource written in English X post Topics to consider 

Kobeissi called Trump’s alleged “Trump-like” behavior. “tariff playbook” — a set pattern that the US has used to introduce its trade measures and one to which markets react identically every time.

“The market’s reaction will likely come with a similar emotional selloff, but the impact may be less severe given there is time to digest the news,” Predictions are made.

Playbook consists of 12 phases which are played out over a period of several weeks. Markets have many periods of weakness, as the uncertainty about trade changes, but it always favors risks.

“Over the next 2-4 weeks, various members of the Trump Administration continue to tease progress toward a trade agreement,” The 11th step is the state.

Final results are “a trade deal is announced and markets hit new record highs.”

New highs for gold and silver

Precious metals, on the other hand, continue to be a beneficiary of the turmoil. 

The gold price reached a new high of $5,000 an ounce to begin the week. Silver also hit a new record-high $94.

“Gold continues to tell the future,” Kobeissi commented.

In BTC, the price of gold has nearly doubled over the past two years.

Timothy Peterson commented that he was confident Bitcoin would catch up to gold in terms of its historic movements.

“Bitcoin and Gold trendlines are literally on top of each other. Both are headed to the same place, just taking different paths,” He told X-Followers at the Weekend

Peterson made a prediction last week that the gold price could continue to rise. “at least” Five more years bull market is possible, and stocks could continue to rise for even longer.

3/3

Is the stock market at its peak? Yes! Is that crash? No!

How long will stocks remain at the top of the market? 20 years! The internet.

What do you think about now? 20 years! AI and robotics are the reason.

Are we at the peak of the gold cycle? No!

5) How long till it… pic.twitter.com/u8VmP66n7e

— Timothy Peterson (@nsquaredvalue) January 16, 2026

Fed rates based on inflation and unemployment data

The week is not over yet for the traders.

The Federal Reserve is set to release delayed US macroeconomic statistics, including the Federal Reserve’s “preferred” inflation gauge.

On Thursday, the Personal Consumption Expenditures Index (PCE), along with initial claims for unemployment and first revisions to Q3 GDP will be released.

Even with the absence of the tariffs, there are contradictions in the macro view. Stocks have a strong start in 2026. unprecedented tensions The Fed’s disagreement with the US Government over the financial policies, as well as the broader geopolitical uncertainties involving the Middle East.

“While investors will be fixated on the prospect for rising volatility around tariff and geopolitical headlines this week, the recent market action has remained extremely bullish to start the year,” The latest issue of the regular newsletter from Mosaic Asset Company, which summarizes its trading resources.The Market Mosaic.”

Mosaic also observed a commodities breakout in progress — something that it forecasts “has massive implications for the inflation outlook.”

The Cointelegraph published mixed US inflation figures last week. Consumer Price Index (CPI) The following are some examples of how to get started: Producer Price Index (PPI) For November, they are going separate ways.

At its meeting in January, the Fed is expected to maintain interest rates as they are, and provide no relief on liquidity for risky assets or crypto.

Bitcoin market flip “structurally healthy”

Bitcoin’s price is giving analysts reason for optimism, as for the very first time since months a new trend has begun.

Related: Three reasons why Bitcoin’s ‘real breakout’ toward $107K has begun

CryptoQuant’s on-chain analytics platform shows that buyers have steadily taken control over the market with recent years. week’s move to near $98,000.

“The recent Bitcoin rebound is not a leverage-driven futures rally, but a move initiated by the recovery of real buying demand in the spot market,” COINDREAM contributed a piece to one of their “Quicktake” blog posts.

These findings relate to the cumulative volume delta (CVD), both on spot markets and derivatives.

“Spot Taker CVD shifted clearly from sell-dominant to buy-dominant first, and futures Taker CVD followed this trend afterward,” CryptoQuant has been continued. 

“This indicates that the market is not in the late stage of an overheated rally, but rather in the early phase of demand recovery.”

It is a new way to get the best out of your vehicle “structurally healthy” The uptrend is in stark contrast to the Q4 of 2025 where the downside continued for most of that quarter. record liquidity wipeout The highest monthly earnings were $126,000 in October.

CryptoQuant reports that the overall open interest on derivatives (OI) has fallen by 17.5% in BTC since 2012.

“At present, Open Interest is showing signs of a gradual recovery, suggesting a slow return of risk appetite,” contributor Darkfost commented Another “Quicktake” post. 

“If this trend continues and strengthens, it could increasingly support a continuation of the bullish momentum, although for now the rebound remains relatively modest.”