Markus Thielen is the head of 10x Research’s research department. He says that Bitcoin’s four-year cycle, which has been hotly debated, continues to play out. However, the driving forces have changed from the halves towards politics and liquidity.
Thielen said that he was against the concept of the 4-year cycle in his appearance on the Wolf Of All Streets podcast. “broken” He misses out on the main point. He believes that the Bitcoin cycle is still intact but no longer controls it.BTC(‘s programed supply reductions. In fact, the US election calendar, central banks’ policies and flows of capital to risk assets are increasingly shaping it.
Thielen pointed out that historical market highs in 2013, 2017 or 2021 all occurred in the 4th quarter. He said that these peaks are more in line with political instability and presidential election cycles than they are with Bitcoin halves, which can be timed at any point throughout the year.
“There’s this uncertainty that the sitting president’s party is going to lose a lot of seats. I think that’s also the odds now that Trump would lose or Republicans would lose a lot of seats in the House, and therefore, maybe he’s not going to push a lot of his agenda through anymore,” He said.
Related: Bitcoin ‘up year’ is 2026, and the four-year cycle is dead
Bitcoin does not benefit from the Fed’s rate cuts
Bitcoin comments are made by Bitcoin struggles to regain momentum The Federal Reserve has just cut rates. Thielen notes that while historically rate cuts supported risk assets Thielen states the current climate is different. The institutional investors who are now the majority in the crypto market, have become more cautious. This is because the Fed’s policy signals remain mixed, and the liquidity conditions are tightening.
Further, the capital flows into Bitcoin are down compared to last year. This reduces the upward pressure required for a sustained breakout. Thielen believes that Bitcoin will remain in consolidation mode without a significant increase in liquidity.
This shift has also implications on how investors view timing. Thielen suggested that market participants not anchor their expectations on the half-off, but instead watch for political catalysts, such as US election results, debates about fiscal policy and changes in monetary policies.
Related: Bitcoin’s 4-year cycle may not be dead after all: Glassnode
Arthur Hayes: Crypto cycle of four years is Dead
BitMEX’s co-founder Arthur Hayes claimed in October that the four-year crypto cycle is overHe said that traders who rely on historical timing models to call the end of this bull market are likely to be wrong, as these patterns no longer reflect how markets move. He claimed that those who use historical time models to forecast the end of this bull market will likely be mistaken, since these patterns don’t reflect current markets.
Hayes says that Bitcoin cycles were always driven by liquidity in the global market, and never by an arbitrary timeline of four years. Previous bull markets have ended as monetary conditions tightened. This was particularly true when US dollar liquidity and Chinese Yuan liquidity decreased. He said that the halving has been overstated and is not a coincidence, but rather a cause.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
