Bitcoin’s Four-Year Cycle Is Over — Or Is It?

The analysts believe the usual four-year cryptocurrency cycle has been broken due to the following factors: a surge of institutional crypto investment spurred by ETFs, a relaxation of US regulation, an increase of global liquidity, & / or a change of leadership in the Federal Reserve.

You can also find out more about the following: four-year cycle Bitcoin is a digital currency (BTCHalfing events, where the miner’s rewards are cut in half. This reduces the number of Bitcoins entering circulation. 

This was historically seen as a catalyst to a predictable pattern. bull run This peaked 18 months later and then experienced a severe correction, which was followed up by a bear market lasting several years.

Analysts have noted that Bitcoin is currently exhibiting the same price cycle as four years ago, having declined by 30% since its high in the first year following the halving and entering a negative phase.

Four-year cycle has broken, analysts say

Nick Ruck of LVRG Research told Cointelegraph the halving cycles appeared to have started. break down By 2025.

According to him, the decline was due to an increase in institutional demand for ETFs as well corporate treasuries. “lessened the expected post-peak crash and reduced volatility compared to prior cycles.” 

“While the bull market may face near-term consolidation amid macroeconomic pressures, we anticipate it will extend into 2026 with support from ongoing structural inflows and evolving market dynamics.”

Grayscale was first released in early December. predicted Bitcoin is expected to reach new highs in 2026. The reason given was a rising macro-demand due currency devaluation, and an enabling regulatory environment.

“We expect rising valuations in 2026 and the end of the so-called ‘four-year cycle,’ or the theory that crypto market direction follows a recurring four-year pattern.” 

Geoffrey Kendrick’s, Standard Chartered’s, global head of research for digital assets, stated in December, that the theory is not valid. “no longer valid” You can also find out more about the following: halved The bank has now predicted that Bitcoin’s price will reach $150,000 before the end of the year 2026. 

BitMEX CEO Cathie wood and Ark Invest CEO Cathie wood are among the other crypto executives. Arthur HayesCryptoQuant CEO Hunter Horsley believes that four-year cycles are a thing in the past. So do Bitwise CIO Matt Hougan and Real Vision cofounder Raoul Pal. 

The four-year cycle is still in existence  

But, according to some analysts the crypto market has entered a bearish phase. 

Related: Crypto has everything needed for a bull market, so why is the market down?

“Bitcoin entered a bear market in late October 2025, becoming the first major risk asset to price in a slowing economy,” Markus Thielen, CEO of 10x Research told Cointelegraph Early December is the best time to start.

If you are interested in learning more about the Analyst Program, please click here. “Rekt Capital” Has also maintained The four-year cycle remains intact but on December 20th, said that “If BTC’s 4-year cycle is ‘broken,’ it’s probably just leveling up.” 

Analysts also claim traders are anticipating the cycle and selling in advance, further depressing price. 

This model was created by a man known as “PlanB,” said On December 17, the majority of sales was due. “OGs traumatized by 2021,” You can also find out more about the following: “four-year cycle fans expecting a bear market two years post-halving.”

Alex Wacy is a reputable analyst. said The four-year cycle hasn’t been broken yet, but the expectations have.

“Altcoins bled. No euphoria. No altseason. Just boredom and pain. While stocks made ATHs, AI went vertical, and gold outperformed. Cycles don’t always end. Sometimes they stretch.”

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