Arthur Hayes is the co-founder and CEO of BitMEX. He has confirmed that the crypto-cycle, which lasts four years, does not exist for the same reasons as most people assume.
“As the four-year anniversary of this fourth cycle is upon us, traders wish to apply the historical pattern and forecast an end to this bull run,” Hayes wrote a post in his blog on Thursday.
He said that the old four-year cycle is no longer valid. “will fail this time.”
Hayes Bitcoins (BTCThe price cycle is driven more by USD supply and Chinese yuan quantity than by arbitrary patterns of four years linked to halving eventsAs a result, institutional investors are interested in the crypto market.
Hayes stated that past cycles did not end because of the timing but rather when financial conditions tightened.
Current cycle has a different rhythm
Hayes claims that the cycle will be different due to several factors, such as the US Treasury releasing more Treasury Bills and draining $2.5 Trillion from the Fed Reverse Repo Program into the market. “run it hot” You can also find out more about easier monetary policy To get out of debt.
Plans also exist to liberalize banks and increase lending.
Related: Is the four-year crypto cycle dead? Believers are growing louder
The US central bank also resumed its rate-cutting despite the fact that inflation was above target. There are two more rate reductions predicted for this year. 94% of the odds predict a cut in October, and 80% on a December one. according CME Futures Markets
The Chinese and US currency printing
Bitcoin’s initial bull run was triggered by the Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing, and Chinese credit growth. The Fed and Chinese central bank both slowed their money printing at the end of 2013.
Second “ICO cycle” The yuan devaluation and credit boom in 2015 were the primary factors driving the market, not the USD. He said that the bull market crashed as Chinese credit growth slowed and conditions in dollars tightened.
The third “[COVID-19] cycle,” Bitcoin surged solely on USD liquidity while China was relatively restrained. Hayes explained that the Fed started tightening its monetary policy in late 2021.
China is not going to kill the cycle of violence this time
Hayes asserted that he was not a skeptic. China The policymakers have moved to a different direction. They are not as eager to fuel the rally this time as they were in previous cycles. “end deflation” Rather than continue to drain liquid.
It is a significant change from the deflationary policy to a monetary regime that at minimum neutralizes or moderately supports Bitcoin. This removes one of the major obstacles to the Bitcoin growth cycle.
“Listen to our monetary masters in Washington and Beijing. They clearly state that money shall be cheaper and more plentiful. Therefore, Bitcoin continues to rise in anticipation of this highly probable future. The king is dead, long live the king!”
Some still adhere to the 4-year cycle
Glassnode is a company that provides on-chain analysis. stated In August, “from a cyclical perspective, Bitcoin’s price action also echoes prior patterns.”
“I think when it comes to the four-year cycle, the reality is that it’s very likely that we’ll continue to see some form of a cycle,” Saad Ahmed is the head of APAC for Gemini crypto exchange. told Cointelegraph published earlier this month.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
