Bitcoin Will Soar, Altcoins Won’t—Charles Edwards Explains Why

Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments spoke to Korean crypto researcher Juhyuk Bak. He is also known by the handle @JuhyukB. laid out The crypto-asset markets are exhibiting a dramatic divergence: Bitcoin is expected to double its value in 2018, while altcoins have structural problems and remain far away from any rotation.

Bitcoin could reach $200,000 this year

Edwards, who is a macro-quant hedge fund manager, was unambiguously bullish about Bitcoin. “If the data stays in the current trend we’re in, I think $150–200K is definitely possible this year.” Capriole’s founder, who is known as a pioneer of on-chain value models such Hash RibbonsThis forecast is based on a complex web of technical, macroeconomic, sentiment and emotion signals.

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“We’re printing new all-time highs on daily and weekly closes,” Edwards noted. “As long as we stay above $104K […] as long as the Macro Index trends up, and US liquidity continues to rise, this environment is very bullish.”

Capriole’s proprietary Macro Index—a machine learning model aggregating over 100 inputs from Fed liquidity to bond and equity markets—has turned decisively positive. Edwards said that metrics such as the ‘Bitcoin Index’ are further supporting Bitcoin’s rise. MVRV Z-ScoreHodler growth rates, Energy Value and other indicators all indicate room for expansion.

Bitcoin’s strength is evident in many dimensions. However, the story of altcoins is quite different.

Altcoin Cycle Death: The End of the Old Cycle

Edwards avoided naming any specific altcoins. However, he did deliver a clear macro-decision: The capital flow dynamics has changed and altcoins have no longer been on equal footing as Bitcoin. “Structurally, things are quite a bit different this cycle […] the biggest driving forces are Bitcoin ETFs and US policy. That’s creating a centralizing effect—funneling capital directly into Bitcoin,” He explained.

He pointed to the historical cycles of retail-led altcoin rallies, followed by catastrophic drawdowns—often exceeding 99% losses. “Retail has just gotten destroyed,” He said it bluntly. “There’s a fatigue in the altcoin space that wasn’t there four or five years ago.”

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What is the legacy of tokenomics and failed ICOs? FTX collapse Have left permanent scars. While institutions avoid the complexity and risks of digital assets with lower market capitalizations, they opt instead to get regulated Bitcoin exposure by using ETFs, corporate Treasury allocations, and regulated Bitcoin exchanges. “It used to be more of a level playing field. That’s no longer the case,” Edwards stated. “The real money is flowing into Bitcoin—and that probably continues for a while.”

When Will Altcoins Awaken?

Edwards doesn’t dismiss altcoins completely, despite the grim tone. He views a strong altcoin cycle as conditional—not impossible, but dependent on clear Bitcoin dominance first.

Using Capriole’s Speculation Index (which tracks the relative strength of and price movements for altcoins) and Crypto Breadth model, he made a crucial observation. “Right now, only 5% of altcoins are above their 200-day moving average. That’s not bullish.”

He likened the current scenario to that of late 2020, where Bitcoin rose from $10K up to $60K and altcoins took over. The rotation of the market required Bitcoin’s previous record highs to be decisively breached. “You want Bitcoin to hit something like $140K while alts are still underperforming. That would be the ideal setup […] that’s when capital begins rotating downstream,” He explained.

Edwards considers it a good sign if, on the other hand, altcoins start pumping too early, but Bitcoin is still stuck in its range. “That’s usually the last puff of air,” He was warned.

The Risks and Cycles are Changing

Edwards also questioned whether traditional halving cycles were still relevant. He argued that the impact of miners—once the primary driver of Bitcoin supply dynamics—has diminished significantly due to ETFs, corporate treasuries, and sovereign actors like Michael Saylor. “That four-year cycle is dead—or at least dramatically weaker. Miners are now just 2–3% of the total supply flow. The real drivers today are institutions,” He said.

This evolution reduces the probability of 80% drawdowns and increases the risk of systemic leverage—particularly from publicly traded Bitcoin-heavy firms. Edwards believes that while not an immediate issue, there could be long-term risks if the major players are overextended.

Edwards discussed the diversification of Capriole’s portfolio. Edwards revealed that while Bitcoin is still the core asset of Capriole, it has exposure to other quantum computing equities such as IonQ (IONQ), Rigetti(RGTI), DWave(QBTS), QUBT and D-Wave. “I think quantum is like Bitcoin in 2015. It’s early, it’s volatile, but the long-term CAGR could be even higher than Bitcoin’s.”

Gold, he said, plays an important role in the strategy of gold. Not as a substitute but rather as a hedge. Capriole monitors the gold-to-equity ratio closely, and its breakout above the 200-day moving average is seen as a historically bullish signal—both for gold and Bitcoin.

Edwards encouraged investors in his closing remarks to turn off most financial news. “Probably 99% of headlines don’t matter,” He said. Focus on the game-changing changes: Fed pivots, global liquidity expansionsThis includes a true structural restructuring of capital flows. “We’re wired to overreact to bad news. The key is to filter it down to a few macro drivers that actually move the market—and Bitcoin right now has those working in its favor.”

Edwards’ message is crystal clear: Bitcoin’s price will rise until altcoins prove their value and end long-term resistance. Altcoins won’t—at least, not yet.

BTC was trading at $105,557 as of the time this article went to press.

Featured image was created using DALL.E chart by TradingView.com