A recent study on the blockchain indicates that Bitcoin has entered a new phase of its development, driven by an increasing divergence in retail activity and whale activities.
Consumer Optimism and Whale Positioning Differ Sharply
Then, you can also find out more about the following: X post Joao Wetherson, a crypto analyst from Brazil, highlighted on the 16th of May a clear division between Bitcoin’s retail and whale activities. This assertion was based off of readings taken from the Bitcoin Whale Vs. Retail Delta Metric. The metric is used to monitor the differences in the trading behaviors of large Bitcoin holders, or whales. The metric can be extended to identify whether or not the big money (whales) is more bullish than smaller traders.
Bitcoin’s Whale vs Retail delta has fallen to its lowest point since 2024. This was around the launch of ETF, during a period when whales were putting on strong pressure by shorting bitcoins.
Now, we see a pattern of similar behaviour.
A large number of people are… pic.twitter.com/ESSjxPd1ND
— Joao Wedson (@joao_wedson) May 16, 2026
According to Wedson, the Bitcoin: Whale Vs Retail Delta has now fallen to its lowest level since January 2024 — the same period where the spot Bitcoin ETFs were launched in the United States. This was also a period where Bitcoin’s largest holders exerted significant selling pressure. According to the market analyst, it is possible that this same pattern of behavior that was seen in 2024 will be repeated. The market quant believes that Bitcoin whales have begun to lower their risk exposure as the retail sector continues to purchase more Bitcoin. This is likely because they believe the price has bottomed out at $60.000.
Whale activity is often an early warning signal during times of excess market euphoria. Large investors tend to be more risk-averse, particularly after strong rallies. Wedson, however, notes that this divergence is not necessarily a sign of an imminent price adjustment. It simply indicates a growing level of uncertainty in the Bitcoin market. If other conditions — such as institutional demand and ETF inflows — should align with this already uncertain market, the world’s leading cryptocurrency might face bearish pressure in the near to mid-term.
Bitcoin Market Overview
Bitcoin is currently trading at $78,188. Data from CoinMarketCap shows that the top cryptocurrency has fallen by 1.01% in the last day. Bitcoin has also lost over 3% in value on a week-to-week basis. ETF-tracking site SoSoValue has also reported that US BTC Spot ETFs recorded an astounding weekly net outflow $1 billion as of May 15. This is the first weekly negative netflow of Q2, ending a bullish six-week streak. The total value of Bitcoin ETFs was $104.29 Billion at the time of publication, which represents 6.58 % of the current market capitalization.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
