‘Bitcoin Wants To Go Higher,’ Says Bitwise—But There’s A Catch

Matt Hougan is the Chief Investment Office (CIO), of Bitwise. In an April 15, 2025 investor note, he shared an overview of Bitcoin’s most recent trading patterns, which may surprise critics as well as supporters. “Bitcoin is acting like an asset that wants to go higher, if only macro obstacles would get out of the way,” He wrote.

According to Hougan, Bitcoin’s price on April 14 hovered around $84,379, compared to $84,317 a month earlier—a minuscule change of 0.07% during a 30-day window. The flat performance was reflected in two geopolitical developments: President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs against countries across the world and the United States creating a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve.

Bitcoin’s resilience during this time period is in sharp contrast with the general downward trend of traditional financial markets. Hougan pointed out that the S&P 500, which peaked on February 19, has lost 12.0% of its value, with Bitcoin down a comparable 12.4% since that date.

This alignment was astonishing to him, especially because Bitcoin has behaved differently in the past during market declines. In the 2022 correction, for example, the S&P 500 slid 24.5% while Bitcoin plunged 58.3%. At the onset the COVID-19 Crisis in early 2020 stocks plunged 33.8% while Bitcoin dropped 38.1%. Meanwhile, in late 2018 as escalating US-China Trade tensions drove equities lower by 19.36% Bitcoin plummeted 37.22%. The historical record of Bitcoin’s performance when the stock market suffered a decline was a strong indicator that it would always be more severe.

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Hougan’s latest note emphasized the difference in how things feel now. Bitcoin’s losses are now closely mirrored by those of the stock market, rather than being a far cry from equity markets. Bitcoin is not a hedge, he said, but this does make it a good asset. “Critics will point out that matching stocks’ performance during a downturn is not the same as acting as a hedge asset, and that gold has been a better performer than Bitcoin during this pullback. That’s true.”

He argued, however, that Bitcoin’s resilience in a world of macroeconomic turmoil is demonstrated by its ability to remain around $80,000. “If that doesn’t give you confidence in its staying power, I don’t know what will,” “He remarked.”

Hougan is of the opinion that Bitcoin has entered a new phase. He said that Bitcoin has been historically driven by competing forces. It has served as an asset with high volatility and significant upside potential, but it also has occasionally played the role of gold-like hedge.

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Bitcoin was initially viewed as a risky asset. In major stock market sell-offs investors would often exit Bitcoin more quickly and aggressively. Now, with more corporations integrating Bitcoin into their balance sheets, institutional investors exploring it as part of diversified portfolios, and governments—like the United States—incorporating it into strategic reserves, there appears to be a gradual tilt toward Bitcoin being treated more like “digital gold.” .

Hougan warns that investors must not ignore the unpredictability of the current macroeconomic environment. He said that equity markets have not reached their bottom and that further declines could expose Bitcoin to greater vulnerability in the event of a panic.

Then he added, gold’s performance Bitcoin is still a classic example of safe-haven behaviour during systemic shocks. This means that Bitcoin hasn’t conclusively shown it can replace conventional hedges in times of economic stress. In his own words, “The world is unraveling, and Bitcoin is trading above $80,000.”

Hougan stressed that this dynamic is not guaranteed to last, especially given the unpredictability of unexpected changes in monetary or tariff policy. He concluded his note by saying: “Our baby is growing up as a macro asset. And that’s a beautiful thing to see.”

BTC is currently trading for $85,200.

Featured image was created with DALL.E chart by TradingView.com