The key takeaways
- Bitcoin is still under pressure due to $2.1 billion of ETF withdrawals from June, and a continuing discount in relation to the global Bitcoin/USDT pair.
- The STRC shares of Strategy show weakness. This is due to growing concern over the monthly dividend obligation and share dilution.
On Wednesday, the US stock market fell after Donald Trump announced that the Iran memorandum was still not final. Investors are concerned that the oil flow through Strait of Hormuz won’t clear as quickly and this will add further pressure to inflation. The stock market is at risk, as well as Bitcoin (BTC).
US-Iran are set to sign a formal deal on Friday. The agreement will begin a 60 day period of negotiations. Trump claimed on Wednesday the oil price could drop if the deal is approved by the markets. But the US President has threatened more bombings in case Iran does not comply. “behave.”
US 5-year Treasury Yield vs. Brent crude oil, USD. Source: TradingView
The price of crude Brent fell to the lowest in over 100 days. However, traders do not believe that fuel prices will remain a major factor on the markets. US Treasuries’ yields were unchanged from the previous two weeks, at 4.16%. Investors’ confidence that the US Federal Reserve will be able to lower interest rates in a timely manner is decreasing, leading them to demand a higher return on government bonds.
The impact of higher inflation on Bitcoin demand
The US Retail Sales data published on Wednesday revealed a 6.9% increase from May 2025. However, the growth is likely due to higher prices for goods like fuel. Kevin Warsh was also the Chair of Fed Committee for his first ever meeting. Investors will be looking to determine Warsh’s personal credibility and views.
Nasdaq100 Futures (left) and Bitcoin/USD. TradingView
Bitcoin, the most popular cryptocurrency in terms of volume and value, has been unable to maintain a price above $80,000 ever since May. Bitcoin traders are sceptical about Bitcoin due to the lack of demand for spot exchange traded funds (ETFs).
Coinbase Bitcoin US Dollar vs. USDT international prices. Source: TradingView & Cointelegraph
Over the last five weeks, Coinbase’s Bitcoin in USD traded at a lower price than international exchanges that use USDT. The US-listed Bitcoin spot ETFs are also seeing a rise. $2.1 billion in net outflows As of June. Recent weakness in Strategy preferred perpetual equity Stretch(STRC US), has fueled negative sentiment.
Related: Bitcoin tops $67K following US-Iran peace deal: Is it a bull trap?
Source: TradingView. Strategy of choice for perpetual equity Stretch (STRC US). TradingView
STRC is offering an 11,5% yield to holders, but the price of new shares can be only $100. Strategy can no longer pay out $142 millions in monthly cash dividends, and must diluted MSTR investors by issuing new shares or cutting its USD reserves of $1.1billion. Total preferred shares issued by Strategy are $15.5 billion.
No evidence exists that Strategy is going to be successful forced to sell any of its Bitcoin STRC is not expected to make any reserves in the near future, but the STRC prices reflect low confidence about the financial leverage of the company. Investors are worried that even if Bitcoin institutional flows resume, the US-Iran deal might not be completed. Therefore, a sustained rally up to $80,000 may take longer.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
