Bitcoin nears $102K as the FOMC triggers sales

The key take-aways

• Bitcoin fell $103,500, as traders reduced their risk in anticipation of the FOMC’s decision tomorrow.

• The technical data indicates that Bitcoin’s price will bounce between $102,000 to $104,000.

• Onchain’s data indicates that mid-term investors have made significant gains over the last month.

BitcoinBTCThe price of a ) fell to $103,300 as traders began to reduce their risk exposure ahead of the Federal Open Market Committee’s (FOMC) meeting and subsequent interest rate announcement, which is scheduled for Wednesday. The correction follows a bearish weekly candle close, suggesting a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions—particularly the Israel-Iran conflict—add to the risk-off sentiment.

The following is a list of Bitcoin VectorAccording to, a Swissblock backed market-pulse aggregator, this decline is not only macro-driven. The decline is correlated with seasonality and a slowing onchain growth. This indicates a cooling in demand. In the last day, over $434 million worth of BTC futures have been liquidated, indicating that traders are opting to be cautious rather than take on new exposure.

Bitcoin has remained a popular cryptocurrency. Coinbase Premium Index—a metric comparing BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance has remained positive for most of June, signaling steady spot demand from US investors. Due to the general caution of the market, there has been a relatively limited effect on prices.

Profit-taking activities among “mid-cycle holders” (6–12 months), who realized $904 million Glassnode reports that Glassnode made profits of $1.01 on Monday. This group was responsible for 83% the realized profits, which is an important shift from those who held the stock longer term or had it more than 12 months, and were previously the leaders in profit realisation. The change suggests that the dynamics of the market have changed, and more active participants are now able to secure gains when recent highs were reached.

Even so, the long-term behavior of investors is positive. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted Long-term investors (LTHs), despite their historically positive pattern, are not spending large amounts.

A healthy MVRV Z-score—indicating BTC remains fundamentally undervalued—and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum hints at selective profit-taking rather than panic. Similar setups in past cycles have preceded 18–25% rallies within 6–8 weeks, which implies a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2.

Related: Bitcoin threatens $104K ‘rug pull’ as trader says major move yet to come

Bitcoin may drop to as low as $102,000.

A technical view suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a temporary bottom, between $102,000 and $100,000. This area contains a large liquidity pocket, and an historical order block.

Bollinger Bands are another reason why a mean reversion could occur around $102,000. The chart shows that a technical reaction is likely to be faster than expected from the $102,000 level due to the close proximity of the middle bands, which are around $106,000 and act as dynamic resistance. This will also be reinforced by the historical respect for this price (e.g. early June consolidation).

Bollinger Bands have also begun to compress, indicating a spike in volatility. Meanwhile, the middle band of nearly $106,000 acts as a dynamic support. If the Bollinger Bands are able to close and regain $106,748 then this could confirm a bullish mean-reversion towards $112,000. A clean break under $100,000 could invalidate this setup, and the target would be $98,000.

Data from Alphractal Short-Term Holdings (STHs), who remain in profits, are also supported by $98,300. Breaking this threshold may cause the structure to undergo a more severe correction. Alphractal stated:

“As long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, we can still consider the market to be bullish. The scenario would only change if BTC loses the $98K level aggressively, which could trigger a deeper drop.”

Related: Watch these Bitcoin price levels ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.