Bitcoin trades near $102k support as FOMC triggers selling

Takeaways from the conference:

• Bitcoin fell $103,500, as traders reduced their risk in anticipation of the FOMC’s decision tomorrow.

• According to technical data, Bitcoin prices will fluctuate between $102,000 and $100,000.

• Onchain shows that holders of mid-term contracts have seen significant returns in the past few months.

BitcoinBTCThe price dropped to $103,300 when traders reduced their exposure in anticipation of Wednesday’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting and subsequent rate announcement. The correction follows a bearish weekly candle close, suggesting a trend reversal, while geopolitical tensions — particularly the Israel-Iran conflict — add to the risk-off sentiment.

The following is a list of Bitcoin VectorAccording to, an aggregated market-pulse aggregator backed by Swissblock, this decline isn’t only macro-driven. In line with the seasonal slowdown and declining onchain network, it indicates that spot demand is cooling. In the last day, over $434 million worth of BTC futures have been liquidated, indicating that traders are opting to be cautious rather than take on new exposure.

Bitcoin has remained largely unchanged. Coinbase Premium Index — a metric comparing BTC prices on Coinbase and Binance, has remained positive for most of June, signaling steady spot demand from US investors. Due to the caution of the market, there has been a relatively limited effect on prices.

The profit-making activity of some “mid-cycle holders” (six–12 months), who realized $904 million Glassnode reported that Monday’s profits were up by a whopping 83%. The group accounted for 83% total realized gains. This is a significant shift from previous holders who were more long-term, or held their investments longer than 12 months. The change suggests that the dynamics of the market have changed, and more active participants are now securing higher gains at recent highs.

Even so, the long-term behavior of investors is positive. Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. noted Long-term investors (LTHs), a bullish trend historically, are continuing to refrain from spending large amounts.

A healthy MVRV Z-score — indicating BTC remains fundamentally undervalued — and positive Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) momentum hints at selective profit-taking rather than panic. Similar setups in past cycles have preceded 18–25% rallies within six–eight weeks, which implies a potential $130,000 price target by the end of Q2.

Related: Bitcoin threatens $104K ‘rug pull’ as trader says major move yet to come

Bitcoin’s price could fall to $102,000. Here’s why

A technical view suggests that Bitcoin is approaching a temporary bottom, between $102,000 and $100,000. This area contains a large liquidity pocket, and an historical order block.

Bollinger Bands are another reason why a mean reversion could occur around $102,000. The chart shows that a technical reaction is likely to be faster than expected from the $102,000 level due to the close proximity of the middle bands, which are around $106,000 and act as dynamic resistance. This will also be reinforced by the historical respect for this price (e.g. early June consolidation).

Bollinger Bands have also begun to compress, signalling an imminent spike in volatility. Meanwhile, the middle band of nearly $106,000 acts as a dynamic support. If the Bollinger Bands are able to close and reclaim $106,748, this could confirm a bullish trend towards $112,000. In the opposite case, a break of $100,000 or less may invalidate and nullify this setup. The target is $98,000.

Data from Alphractal Also, $98,300 is the main support for short-term investors (STHs), who are still in profit. Breaking this threshold can cause the structure to go into a more severe correction. Alphractal stated:

“As long as Bitcoin stays above the STH Realized Price, we can still consider the market to be bullish. The scenario would only change if BTC loses the $98K level aggressively, which could trigger a deeper drop.”

Related: Watch these Bitcoin price levels ahead of Fed Chair Powell’s speech

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.