Bitcoin trades at ‘40% discount’ as spot BTC ETF buying soars to $3B in one week

The key takeaways

• According to data, Bitcoin is currently trading at a discount of 40%.

• On April 25, over 36,000 Bitcoins were removed from Coinbase, Binance and other exchanges.

• Bitcoin’s fractal patterns from Q4 of 2024 may propel its price to $100,000 by April.

Bitcoin (BTC) Charles Edwards of Capriole Investments says the current price is 40% less than its intrinsic value.

Edwards recently posted on X. highlighted that since the April 2024 halving, which reduced block rewards to 3.125 BTC, Bitcoin’s energy value—an estimate based on mining costs and energy consumption—stands at $130,000.

Data from Recent Studies CryptoQuant Coinbase reported that on 24 April, over 8756 BTC (830 millions USD) was withdrawn. Coinbase’s negative netflows could be indicative of institutional purchasing or ETF purchases that reflect underlying demand.

This is in line with Bitcoin ETF inflows seen this week. Bloomberg ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas suggests that institutions went on a $3 billion ‘Bitcoin bender’ over the past few days.

Binance saw an outflow of 27750 BTC from its exchange on April 25, 2018. Alphractal founder Joao Wedson noted You can also find out more about us here. “this is the third largest Bitcoin outflow in the exchange’s history.” Wedson stated that although large outflows suggest positive tailwinds for bulls, they don’t necessarily mean the rally will continue. Analyst said:

“In 2021, massive outflows didn’t prevent the dump triggered by China’s crypto ban (April–May). On the other hand, continuous outflows over several days, like during the FTX collapse, signaled a bottom and recovery.”

Related: Bitcoin ETFs on $3B ‘bender,’ log first full week of inflows in 5 weeks

What if this Bitcoin fractal helps BTC reach $100K?

Bitcoin has seen its biggest weekly increase since November 2024. BTC also has the exact same returns and price movements.

Bitcoin, as illustrated on the chart for one day, is consolidating in a range higher after its breakout. This behavior mirrors that of Q4, 2024. (circled). BTC saw a 15% rise in Nov. 10-11 after a 13% increase between Nov. 5-9. Breakout occurred during the weekend.

BTC has also risen by 11% in the period April 21-25. A 7-10% increase in BTC prices over the next couple of days is possible, as the relative strength (RSI) shows a similar level of buying pressure.

Although fractals may be repeated, they’re not always reliable. It’s not like Q4, where Bitcoin went into price discovery without any resistance. Instead, $96,100 is the overhead resistance that could hinder a breakout.

Related: Bitcoin spikes to 7-week highs as analyst doubts chances of $100K rebound

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making a final decision.