Matthew Sigel is the Head of Digital Assets Research for VanEck. He believes that Bitcoin will reach $180,000 in 2025 as long as key indicators are muted. Talking with podcast Natalie Brunell’s host Sigel, Sigel, outlined an obvious four-year pattern of Bitcoin price movement that he believed has endured through several market cycles.
Why the $180,000 Bitcoin Price Seems Realistic
Sigel said that Bitcoin outperforms nearly all other assets for the first three years of a four-year cycle. Then, he explained, there is a sharp correction during the fourth year. Sigel noted that a typical drawdown ranges from 60 to 80 percent. This decline usually occurs two years following the halving cycle. BTC halving event.
Sigel believes that 2024 and 2025 could be strong years, since Bitcoin’s latest halving occurred in April 2024. “That down year typically is the second year after the halving,” Sigel explained. “The Bitcoin halving occurred in April of this year. So 2024 [will be a] strong year, 2025 should be a strong year. I think 2026, unless something changes, would be a down year.”
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He recalled that the maximum appreciation of Bitcoin in previous cycles was around 2,000%. Sigel said that even if the figure is halved to 1000%, Bitcoin’s current cycle could see it rise from $18,000 at its lowest point to $180,000. “So I see an upside to $180,000 this cycle, and I think that’s likely to happen next year,” Sigel added.
The price of Bitcoin could also exceed or fall below that figure, but $180,000 is a realistic target for 2024 as long as the current pattern continues and there are no significant changes. “red light” There are indicators that appear.
Sigel outlined what he believes are the top signals that traders should be watching. Sigel says the first is to watch out for funding rates in derivatives. If they are above 10% over a period of time, Sigel will consider it a major red flag.
“Some of those indicators include the funding rates. When the funding rate for Bitcoin exceeds 10% for more than a couple months, that tends to be a red light,” Sigel warned of recent market activity and explained how it reset the funding rate. “[Last week’s] washout eliminated that as well. So funding rates [are] not really flashing red.”
Second, the amount of profit that has not been realized on the Blockchain. On-chain analysis will reveal if the cost base is low enough for market participants to take significant profits. This could lead to selling pressure. “We’re not seeing scary amounts of unrealized profits [yet],” Sigel noted.
He said that anecdotal proof of retail speculation or leverage could be a warning sign. He explained that if all these risk indicators were to align at a certain price point—for example, if Bitcoin hit $150,000 and these metrics pointed to a market top—he would be cautious. He said, however, that even if these signals did not appear, the market could still appreciate if Bitcoin reached $180,000.
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“If we reach $180K and none of those lights are flashing, maybe we let it run. If all those lights are flashing and the price is $150K, I’m not gonna wait,” Sigel added.
BTC Next Cycle Predictions
The comparison of Bitcoin to gold’s market capitalization. He said that since about half of the supply of gold is used to make industrial products and jewelery, the remaining half could be directly compared with Bitcoin’s use as an asset and store.
Sigel thinks the Bitcoin price will trend to $450,000 per coin in the future if it reaches a market value similar to half the gold.
He described his perspective as one that was even more future-oriented. VanEck’s long-term model In which central banks around the world might hold Bitcoin in their reserve, even at just a 2% percentage. Sigel assumes that Bitcoin would have a much smaller share than gold, which accounts for 18% of global central bank reserves.
He took into account the possibility that Bitcoin could one day be used as a global settlement currency, possibly among the BRICS nations, which are emerging economies such as Brazil, Russia, India and China. This would likely push Bitcoin’s valuation higher. VanEck calculated that this scenario could place Bitcoin’s value at $3,000,000 per coin in 2050.
“We also assume that Bitcoin is used as a settlement currency for global trade, most likely among BRICS countries. We get to three million dollars a coin by 2050, which would be about a 16% compound annual growth rate.”
BTC was trading at $107 219 as of press time.
Featured Image: Natalie Brunell from YouTube, Chart by TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
