Geoff Kendrick of Standard Chartered Bank’s Global Head of Digital Assets Research, in a paper dated 24 October, predicted that Bitcoin would surge up to $125,000 by year end if Donald Trump wins the upcoming US Presidential election.
Bitcoins Could Reach $125,000
Kendrick’s analysis Bitcoin price fluctuations and US political climate are interdependent. “We use daily BTC vol levels and popular strike levels to estimate post-election price moves,” he states in the report titled Bitcoin – Post-US Election Playbook. Kendrick says that Bitcoin has been increasing in price over the past few weeks. It is aligned with other trading strategies favored Trump supporters.
This report predicts Bitcoin will reach around $73,000 on Election Day, November 5. It is close to its previous high of $73,800 in March. “Our base case is that Bitcoin rises to around $73,000 by Election Day, catching up to betting-market probabilities of a Trump win,” Kendrick notes.
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Bet markets show an increase in confidence about a Trump win. “The average betting odds of a Trump victory now stand at 59%, according to RealClearPolitics. Furthermore, conditional probabilities in specific betting markets (Polymarket) suggest a 75% chance of a Republican sweep if Trump wins the presidency,” Highlights of the Report
Kendrick is anticipating a Trump win immediate bullish momentum Bitcoin. “Assuming a Trump victory, options break-even implies a further price rise of about 4% when the presidential outcome is known, and around 10% in total within a few more days,” The man explains.
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A Republican sweep in Congress would amplify this view. “If the Republicans sweep Congress, our year-end target level of USD 125,000 should come into view,” Kendrick asserts. Significant open interest in Bitcoin Call Options expiring on the 27th of December at $80,000 suggests rapid move towards this level.
What if Harris wins?
In contrast, if Vice President Kamala Harris Report suggests that Bitcoin will experience a temporary drop in price if it is victorious. “If Harris wins, we see BTC initially trading lower but still ending 2024 at fresh highs around $75,000,” Kendrick projects. The long-term prospects for Bitcoin are resilient, regardless of what the outcome of the elections is. However, the size of those gains will differ.
Kendrick highlights the value of option market data when predicting potential price moves. “Options info helps estimate initial post-election price moves,” He says. Investor expectations are reflected in the high trading volume and popularity of strike levels.
Also, the price of Bitcoin dropped to an all-time low in local currency at $65,200. Kendrick is convinced that this will be the case. “likely to be the last before the U.S. presidential election,” The impending political changes may overshadow any corrections made in the short term.
BTC is currently trading for $67.520.
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
