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Bitwise Asset Management’s European Research arm believes that the sell-off following last week’s military escalated between Iran and Israel will likely give way to an explosive relief rally for Bitcoin. This is similar to the behaviour of the cryptocurrency after previous geopolitical shocks. The 16th June edition of the weekly newspaper, “The Weekly”, argues that following last week’s military escalation between Iran and Israel, Bitcoin is likely to experience a powerful relief rally. This would be similar to how it behaved after previous geopolitical shocks. newsletter “Bitwise Europe” points out a “Chart of the Week” The report compares the 20 most important geopolitical risks since July 2010, and concludes that Bitcoin has been on average, the least affected. “up 31.2 percent fifty days after the event, with a median gain of 10.2 percent.”
The authors claim that “major geopolitical risk events tend to be good buying opportunities for bitcoin and other crypto assets.” The firm’s in-house Crypto Asset Sentiment Index briefly turned negative on Friday—its first dip below zero since May—but had already swung back into slightly bullish territory by Monday morning, a shift Bitwise attributes to renewed inflows into spot exchange-traded products and continued US-dollar weakness. Bitcoin is currently trading at around $107,000. A 31% increase would take it up to $140,000.
Missiles Fly, Bitcoin To $140,000?
Markets are analyzing the historic analogue as they digest the first exchange of missiles. Tehran and Jerusalem. Israel has claimed to have destroyed 120 Iranian missile launchers. It also claims that the country now enjoys peace. “full aerial superiority over Tehran.”
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A classic flight to security was triggered by the confrontation: Gold surged past $3,430 on Friday and set a record high. Brent crude also spiked while global equity markets sank. Bitcoin, which had been flirting with its all-time peak near $111,000 early last week, sank as low as $102,600 during the first wave of air-strike headlines before rebounding to the $106,000–107,000 zone. Even after that drawdown, Bitwise notes, the flagship cryptocurrency still out-performed the S&P 500 on a weekly basis thanks to a late-week equity swoon.
The Bitwise thesis is based on three main pillars. First is behavioural: previous geopolitical shocks—from Russia’s 2014 annexation of Crimea to the US–Iran standoff of January 2020—produced knee-jerk liquidations in risk assets, yet Bitcoin’s selling pressure tended to exhaust quickly, setting the stage for a mean-reversion pop. Second, macroeconomics.
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This firm is a good example of a “pronounced depreciation of the US Dollar,” The word “as” is used to describe the. DXY index The dollar index fell to its lowest level since March 20, 2022, following inflation data that was lower than expected and a new increase in unemployment claims. Fed-funds forwards indicate 1.9 interest rate cuts in December 2025. The global economic conditions are now more favourable, allowing non-yielding dollar assets, such as Bitcoin, to thrive.
Third is structural demand: US spot Bitcoin ETFs took in a net $1.37 billion last week, while corporate treasuries kept accumulating—Strategy’s Michael Saylor Tokyo-listed company, Tokyo-listed announced today that it has acquired 10,100 BTC worth $1.05 billion. Metaplanet The war chest now stands at 10,000 coins after the purchase of an extra 1,112 BTC.
Bitwise notes that in derivatives the open interest ratio for Bitcoin put/call options was 0.61, after having dipped to 0.55. The one-month 25 delta skew also flipped into positive territory, at 4.87 percent. This indicates a premium on upside exposure, even though volatility is still around 30%. The funding rates for perpetual swaps remained positive even after Thursday’s purge of risk, which the firm interprets to be a sign that volatility is still low. “bullish positioning or demand for topside hedging.” Behind the scenes, whales withdrew a net 169,527 BTC from exchanges, and exchange-held reserves fell to 2.92 million coins—about 14.6 percent of supply—further tightening spot liquidity.
Sceptics will point out that performance in the past isn’t predictive, and that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine 2022 was fueled by unprecedented stimulus. This may not happen again. Bitwise acknowledges the fact that on-chain realised losses jumped to $55.5 millions last week. “apparent demand” The mood has mellowed.
The firm claims that the combination of dollar weakness, structural inflows and depressed sentiment is similar to the setups which preceded the historical samples of rallies of 31%. The newsletter ends with: “structural demand by both ETPs and corporate treasuries as well as continued macro tailwinds via Dollar weakness and global money supply expansion still support a positive market development for bitcoin and crypto assets.”
BTC was trading at $107 239 as of press time.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
