What If Bitcoin Reached $10 Million? Experts predict explosive growth by 2035

In a new publication titled The Mustard Seed, Joe Burnett—Director of Market Research at Unchained—outlines a thesis that envisions Bitcoin reaching $10 million per coin by 2035. This quarterly letter Take the long-term view and focus on “time arbitrage” As it looks at where Bitcoin, human civilisation, and technology could be in a decade.

Burnett’s arguments revolve around two main transformations that he believes are setting up an unprecedented movement of global capital to Bitcoin. “Great Flow of Capital” a rare asset, (2) and the “Acceleration of Deflationary Technology” AI and Robotics will radically change industries.

The Long-Term Prospects of Bitcoin

The focus of most economic commentaries is on immediate events, such as the earnings reports or price fluctuations. The Mustard Seed’s mission is clear. “Unlike most financial commentary that fixates on the next quarter or next year, this letter takes the long view—identifying profound shifts before they become consensus.”

At the core of Burnett’s outlook is the observation that the global financial system—comprising roughly $900 trillion in total assets—faces ongoing risks of “dilution or devaluation.” Gold, bonds, currencies, equities and real estate all have inflationary or expansionary elements that undermine their value as a store of wealth:

• It is mined by approximately 2% a year. This increases the supply, and gradually reduces its scarcity.
• New development in the Real Estate sector (300 trillion dollars) has led to an increase of 2.4% annually.
• Equity ($110 trillion). Company profits continue to be eroded due to competition and saturation of the market, which contributes devaluation risks.
• Fixed Income & Fiat ($230 trillion): Structurally subject to inflation, which reduces purchasing power over time.

Burnett calls this capital phenomenon “searching for a lower potential energy state,” As if water was cascading through a waterfall, he compared the flow of Bitcoin to that. He believes that all asset classes prior to Bitcoin were effectively “open bounties” for dilution or devaluation. Each category of capital could be distributed amongst real estate, gold or bonds. However, each had a way to erode its value.

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Enter Bitcoin with its hard limit of 21 million coins. Burnett believes that this digital currency is the first money instrument which cannot be diluted from within. Demand, which is growing, will directly affect price. He cites Michael Saylor’s “waterfall analogy”: “Capital naturally seeks the lowest potential energy state—just as water flows downhill. Before bitcoin, wealth had no true escape from dilution or devaluation. Wealth stored in every asset class acted as a market bounty, incentivizing dilution or devaluation.”

Burnett claims that the capital allocation game was changed as soon Bitcoin gained widespread recognition. Much like discovering an untapped reservoir far below existing water basins, the global wealth supply found a new outlet—one that cannot be augmented or diluted.

In order to illustrate Bitcoin’s unique dynamics of supply, The Mustard seed draws a comparison with the cycle of halving. In 2009, miners received 50 BTC per block—akin to Niagara Falls at full force. The reward has dropped from 50 BTC to 3,125 BTC today. This is similar to the Falls’ water flow being halved repeatedly, until the volume of the Falls becomes significantly less. Bitcoin’s new supply by 2065 will be insignificant compared to the total amount of Bitcoin, likened to a small trickle.

Burnett acknowledges that attempts at quantifying Bitcoin’s adoption globally rely on unreliable assumptions. He refers to two models, however: Power Law Model The project is $1.8 billion per BTC in 2035. Michael SaylorThe Bitcoin model suggests that $2.1 million will be spent per BTC in 2035.

He counters by saying that the projections may be inaccurate “too conservative” Because they assume that returns are diminishing. In a world of accelerating technological adoption—and a growing realization of Bitcoin’s properties—price targets could overshoot these models significantly.

The acceleration of Deflationary technology

According to The Mustard Seed, a second important catalyst for Bitcoin’s potential upside is the deflationary waves brought about by AI, robotics, and automation. The innovations increase productivity and lower costs while increasing the availability of goods and services. Burnett is confident that global costs will be drastically reduced by 2035 in several sectors.

Adidas’ “Speedfactories” Reduce sneaker manufacturing from months down to days. Manufacturing costs could be cut by 10x with the use of 3D printers and AI-driven assembly. 3D printed homes are now 50x cheaper and faster. AI-based logistics and supply-chain automation combined with advanced automation can make housing quality 10x cheaper. Automated ride-hailing may reduce the cost of fares up to 90%, by eliminating labor costs and increasing efficiency.

Burnett emphasizes the fact that natural deflation occurs frequently under a system of fiat currency. “artificially suppressed.” Monetary policies—like persistent inflation and stimulus—inflate prices, masking technology’s real impact on lowering costs.

Deflation is not possible with Bitcoin “run its course,” Owners will enjoy increased purchasing power as prices of goods fall. His words: “A person holding 0.1 BTC today (~$10,000) could see its purchasing power increase 100x or more by 2035 as goods and services become exponentially cheaper.”

Burnett returns to the example of a value store over time in order to illustrate how supply increases can erode it. gold’s performance Since 1970. Although the nominal increase of gold from $36 per ounce, to approximately $2,900 an ounce by 2025 may appear substantial, this price rise was continually diluted due to the annual supply growth of 2%. In the past five decades, gold’s global supply has almost tripled.

Burnett’s calculations show that, if the supply of gold had remained constant, it would have reached $8,618/ounce in 2025. A supply shortage would have made gold more scarce, potentially pushing the price and demand even higher.

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Bitcoin is the exact opposite of gold, as it has a fixed supply. A new demand for coins will not lead to additional coin production, and therefore should directly drive up the price.

Burnett’s prediction of a Bitcoin worth $10 million by 2035 implies a market capitalization totaling $200 trillion. While that figure sounds colossal, he points out that it represents only about 11% of global wealth—assuming global wealth continues to expand at a ~7% annual rate. The Mustard Seed argues that allocating 11% of global wealth into the “Global Wealth Fund” is a good idea. “the best long-term store of value asset” It’s not impossible. “Every past store of value has perpetually expanded in supply to meet demand. Bitcoin is the first that cannot.”

Bitcoin’s security budget is dependent on miner revenues. By 2035. Bitcoin’s block subsidy The block size will drop to 0.78125 BTC. Miners can earn up to $411 billion per year if they mine 10 million coins at $10 each. As miners have to sell Bitcoin they earned to cover their costs, the BTC markets would need to absorb the $411 Billion of new BTC mined annually.

Burnett compares the market for wine, estimated at $385 Billion in 2023 but projected to be $528 Billion by 2030. If you are unsure about a certain thing, it is best to ask if a “mundane” He argues that if a sector such as wine is able to sustain this level of demand from consumers, then an industry that secures the leading digital store in the world can reach a similar scale.
Burnett’s report highlights that Bitcoin has not been reported in its entirety. “The number of people worldwide with $100,000 or more in bitcoin is only 400,000… that’s 0.005% of the global population—just 5 in 100,000 people.”

According to studies, around 39% Americans are affected by some degree of “direct or indirect” Bitcoin exposure, but this figure includes any fractional ownership—such as holding shares of Bitcoin-related equities or ETFs through mutual funds and pension plans. Real, substantial adoption remains niche. “If Bitcoin is the best long-term savings technology, we would expect anyone with substantial savings to hold a substantial amount of bitcoin. Yet today, virtually no one does.”

Burnett emphasizes that the road to $10 million does not require Bitcoin to supplant all money worldwide—only to “absorb a meaningful percentage of global wealth.” He argues that the strategy of forward-looking investors is not trivial, but simple: Ignore short-term noises, concentrate on the long-term horizon and take action before Bitcoin becomes widely known. “Those who can see past the short-term volatility and focus on the bigger picture will recognize bitcoin as the most asymmetric and overlooked bet in global markets.”

The other word for it is “front-running the capital migration” Bitcoin users are still very small and traditional assets remain the majority.

BTC is currently trading for $83,388.

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