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Bitcoin Surge up to $330K possible as OTC Balances Drop

Bitcoin By
Michael Saylor039s MicroStrategy Acquired an Additional 9245 BTC
Michael Saylor039s MicroStrategy Acquired an Additional 9245 BTC

Takeaways from the conference:

  • Bitcoin AVIV Ratio still remains well below historic peak levels. This indicates that a rise above $330,000 is possible before a new cycle high can be officially confirmed.

  • The over-the-counter Bitcoin market is down by a significant amount in 2025. This can be attributed to the strategic accumulation of Strategy, Metaplanet and BlackRock, among others.

BitcoinBTCThe price of BTC has been rocky for the past month. However, recent analyses indicate that BTC may surge by another 300% in this cycle. Technical analyst Gert van Lagen’s X post The AVIV ratio is a metric which compares Bitcoin’s active capitalization, or money in motion, to its total capitalization, (realized capital excluding miner’s rewards). 

Historically, when the AVIV Ratio crosses its +3σ mean deviation, it has signaled a cycle top. BTC, for example, was around $1,200 back in 2013 and near $20,000 by 2017. By 2021, it will be at about $69,000. Currently, the AVIV Ratio’s level remains below these past peaks, suggesting Bitcoin could climb to at least $330,000 this cycle, before the +3σ mean deviation condition is met. 

Bitcoin: Historical market comparison of AVIV. Source: Gert van Lagen/X

The AVIV Ratio provides a unique perspective on the market, reflecting both investor activity and locked-in value. An increase in the AVIV Ratio indicates increased trading, or profits taken. This often precedes major price changes. Van Lagen explains this by Bitcoin’s cyclical character, and the fact that post-ATH rallys historically have delivered substantial gains. Its predictive accuracy is not validated in different market conditions and volatility still remains an unknown.

Data from CryptoQuant The graph reveals an important shift. Bitcoin holdings at over-the counter (OTC), desks, have fallen from 166.500 to 137.400 in 2025. The decline in Bitcoin holdings suggests that large investors have moved their positions off of exchanges. This could indicate a reduction in selling pressure, or even a move to long-term storage.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Bitcoin: OTC Desk Total Balance. Source: CryptoQuant

Strategic accumulation of institutional investors led by Strategy’s aggressive purchases and by newcomers such as MetaplanetThe ETFs have received net investments of over $600 million, with a total value of 10,000 BTC. $128.18 billion in net value. BlackRock’s cryptocurrency portfolio holds over $70 billion worth of BTC. These figures sum up major investor’s intentions in the crypto market. 

Related: 25% Bitcoin price rally set to follow today’s correction if history repeats

Bitcoin Price Target between $220,000 to $330,000

Similar to Van Lagen’s price target of $330,000 another study Bitcoin researcher Sminston With has outlined an equivalent cycle top for BTC. With’s analysis leverages a 365-day simple moving average (SMA) aligned with a power law model (R²=0.96), projecting Bitcoin’s price could reach $220,000 to $330,000 in this cycle.

Cryptocurrencies, Bitcoin Price, Markets, Price Analysis, Market Analysis
Sminston With provides a Bitcoin power law analysis. Source: Source: X

BTC is currently trading at around $104,000. To reach these levels it would require a surge of 100 to 200 percent. This corresponds to historical peaks when prices tripled or doubled over the power-law trendline.

With’s model questions the assumption of decreasing volatility. Bitcoin’s cycles still have significant fluctuations, which is evidenced by their constant deviations from trendlines. The researcher is optimistic but cautions the reader that only four cycles were used in the analysis, and urges skepticism. 

Cointelegraph reported CoinGlass’ list of thirty bull market peak indicator suggests Bitcoin might reach $230,000. None, however, signaled a cycle bottom despite BTC hitting $112,000. The bull market is still a long way off, as shown by metrics like Pi Cycle Top or MVRV.

Related: Bitcoin below $100K now ‘less likely’ as BTC price eyes liquidity at $106K

The article is not intended to provide investment advice. Risk is inherent in every investment decision and trade. The reader should always do research prior to making any kind of investment.