Bitcoin sets new August high into key US CPI inflation data

Bitcoin begins the week at new highs, as traders assess the implications of the crunch US data on inflation.

Important points

• The US CPI and PPI numbers come amid shifting bets about Federal Reserve rate hikes 2026.
• It is the Japanese yen that remains in the lead as it returns to the important 160 dollar level.
• Bitcoin (BTC), traders view the $65,800 area as crucial after BTC/USD hit new monthly highs.
• Retail holders have a much smaller wallet compared to those with a larger Bitcoin after two months of accumulating.
• The bear market is still continuing, according to the baskets of indicators onchain. 

The Fed is in a critical period for CPI and PPI data

As markets adjust their expectations about Federal Reserve rate policy, they will release key US inflation statistics.

On Wednesday and Thursday respectively, the July Consumer Price Indexes (CPI) as well as Producer Price Indexes (PPI) are released.

The timing of the release is important — recent US inflation cues have given mixed signals to Fed watchers, while resolution of the US-Iran war likewise remains far from certain. CPI is affected by the latter, as it has been shown to have implications. oil’s price sensitivity Events around the Strait of Hormuz Shipping Route

“Crude oil prices remain ​caught between opposing forces, as markets assess the possibility of a breakthrough over the Strait of Hormuz ‌against ⁠Iran’s conditions for reopening the strategic waterway,” Sugandha S. Sachdeva is the founder and CEO of SS WealthStreet in New Delhi. told Reuters Monday.

US WTI Crude Oil One-Hour Chart CFDs. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

The CPI resulted in a surprise decline, while the PPI saw its first ever decrease. largest monthly decline Since April 2020. The trend in nonfarm payrolls last week was continued. weaker-than-expected labor-market conditions.

Markets have now shifted their expectation from a rate hike of 0.25 % to the continuation of its pause. CME Group FedWatch Tool On Monday, 56% of the time there would be a pause.

“A week ago, market-implied odds strongly favored a rate hike at the Fed’s next meeting in September. Those odds now slightly favor the Fed keeping rates on hold, with just one hike before pausing well into next year,” In the most recent edition of their newsletter, trading resource Mosaic Asset Company writes: The Market Mosaic.

Fed target rates probability comparison for September FOMC (screenshot). Source: CME Group

Mosaic said that the ISM Manufacturing and Services data from last week pointed towards a US economic recovery. “holding up just fine,” Although the data has caused concern, signs of future “stagflation” — rebounding inflation gauges combined with slow economic growth and rising unemployment. 

Yen reverses days after US intervention

After the first US-Japanese joint intervention since late 1990s, the US’ role in manipulating Japanese yen is still a major concern for traders around the world. 

JPY/USD has fallen to its lowest level since lowest levels since 1986 The New York Fed purchased the yen via the Exchange Stabilization Fund (ESF), a store of foreign currency reserves, on behalf of US Treasury.

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said at the time door was open to repeat interventions Future. 

“We strongly support Japan’s decisive market and monetary steps to correct the substantial undervaluation of the yen,” He wrote In a comment on X.

However, in the meantime the yen began to weaken once again, after initially strengthening around 156 to the dollar. The yen was currently trading above 158.50 and closing in once again on 160.

Robin Brooks of the Brookings Institution warned, after analyzing the past history of the yen intervention, that it would not be enough to alter the current status quo.

“You’d think — given everything that’s getting thrown at markets — that the yen would have risen more than during the previous two intervention episodes we saw earlier this year, but that’s not true,” The writer wrote in the a blog post On Friday. He told me:

“Price action is comparable to the NY Fed’s rate check on Jan. 23, which came just ahead of Japan’s Feb. 8 general election. That’s underwhelming and supports my general take that this intervention – like past ones – will fail to stop the Yen’s weakening trend.”

USD/JPY one-day chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

Previously, Cointelegraph reported The longer-term impact of the yen carrying trade is a major liquidity concern for risk assets and crypto traders.

“For global markets, the question is less about any single intervention and more about whether higher Japanese yields alter the incentives for domestic investors to allocate capital overseas,” Trading Company QCP Capital commented Last week.

BTC Bullish Divergences: $65,800 is now the key for Traders

Bitcoin reached new monthly highs at $65,420 as the week ended on Sunday. Then, TradFi returned to its markets and helped consolidate progress.

TradingView’s data still shows BTC/USD in a persistent range. Above that, the exponential moving (EMA), 50-month average is acting as a barrier at $65,827.

Chart of BTC/USD with 50-month EMA. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView

In his latest market analysis, crypto trader Michaël van de Poppe saw three BTC price breakout signals nonetheless locking in on classic price indicators. The moving average convergence/divergence (MACD) and  relative strength index (RSI) both have “strong” At the weekend, he noted bullish divergences for both three-days and one-week periods.

Van de Poppe, alongside a chart that shows divergences in which indicators make higher lows and the price makes lower ones, identified $65,800 for the bulls as their next target.

“All in all, if $65,800 breaks (which is the crucial weekly level), I expect to see a volatile move upwards as short-side liquidity will be forced to move out of its position after this consolidation,” He said.

Chart of BTC/USDT for one week with MACD and RSI. Source: Michaël van de Poppe on X.com

Recent exchange order data CoinGlass The graph shows that liquidity is increasing either on the left or right of the current spot rate. In addition, $65,800 represents an important area to liquidate short positions. The traders did not appear surprised by the new highs of August, and at this time there were $53 million in cross-crypto liquidations within 24 hours.

BTC liquidation heatmap. Source: CoinGlass

Andrew Kamsky was a contributor for the blockchain analytics platform CryptoQuant. Andrew Kamsky was watching a breakout on the chart from a construction of falling wedges. He said that the daily chart was a falling wedge construction. “decision window” The fate of the range could be determined by August 17.

“A rejection between $66.4K and $66.8K, followed by a series of higher lows, could begin forming an ascending triangle and create another opportunity for an upside breakout. A move back inside the wedge would weaken the bullish setup, while a crack below wedge support would invalidate it and suggest that the market is forming a different structure,” He said.

Kamsky provided $72,000 to the investor as an additional target. “possible scenario.”

BTC/USD One-Day Chart (screenshot). Source: CryptoQuant

Investors’ BTC accumulation reaches multi-month peak

The larger Bitcoin investors attracted more attention this week. new analysis Flags are a “sharp shift toward accumulation.”

CryptoQuant data shows an increase in Bitcoin exposure for addresses that hold more than 10,000 BTC. The cohort balance grew by 46,420 BTC in the 60 days rolling up to August 9, the biggest increase since March 15

“More notably, the latest reading is nearly double the 23,238 BTC accumulation peak recorded in mid-March, pointing to a significant acceleration in activity among the largest balance group,” CryptoQuant has commented.

In recent months, the larger hodlers began to separate themselves from those smaller wallets associated with traditional retail investors. Addresses holding between 0.1 BTC to 1 BTC initially began accumulating in July. They then distributed 9,700 BTC over the next 60 days, up until August 9.

“The divergence is notable because it shows two very different positioning trends developing simultaneously: the largest BTC balance cohort is increasing exposure while smaller holders are reducing it,” CryptoQuant noted that the timing coincides with upcoming US CPI/PPI data releases.

Source: CryptoQuant. Bitcoin distribution and accumulation by cohort. Source: CryptoQuant

The Cointelegraph published a report last week describing CryptoQuant as “strong accumulation” Around $65,000 to $62,000, but with an average of $62,000 0.7% of the total BTC supply — around 155,000 coins —  last moving onchain within that range. At the same, record divergence Bitcoin has lost some ground due to the difference in trading volume between futures and spot.

Rafael Schultze­Kraft cofounder and CEO of the onchain analytics company Glassnode described spot markets in terms of their size. “virtually dead.”

“Daily spot turnover ratio sits at just 0.32%, the lowest level in our data, while dollar volume is down ~64% YoY. Textbook apathy. A healthier move higher needs participation to come back,” He told Last week, X people followed a Twitter account.

Bitcoin spot turnover data. Source: Rafael Schultze-Kraft on X.com

Bitcoin’s bear market is expected to continue, according to indicators

Bitcoin’s onchain metrics, and the price gauges that go with them, still require cooler temperatures before they can be a reliable long-term reversal hits.

Related: BIP-110 ends with a whimper, CLARITY vote punted: Hodler’s Digest, Aug. 9

Schultze Kraft conducted a separate investigation that revealed an astonishing record. “capitulation” Glassnode’s Bitcoin Cycle Position Heatmap is a collection of 45 indicators that represent each phase. This heatmap compares the market health over four-year BTC cycle price cycles with the current market conditions.

“Today it sits in its coldest stretch since FTX: late in the bear, but not yet the unanimous deep blue that previously marked a floor,” Last week, Schultze Kraft commented on heatmap readings.

CoinGlass has compiled a Bull Cycle Peak indicator that is similar to its own. It currently stands at 32% towards its ideal. “sell” zone.

Bitcoin Bull Market Peak Indicators Source: CoinGlass

This data is in line with the opinions of a growing number of Bitcoin investors who are looking to historical patterns for predicting the price of BTC through the remainder of 2026. Rekt, an analyst and trader from Rekt Capital, made a comparison to the bear markets of 2022.

“Bitcoin is forming Lower Highs here relative to the July upside wick In 2022, August actually developed a Higher High relative to the preceding July,” its weekend post said. 

Rekt Capital reiterated Bitcoin’s current inability to reclaim the 50-month exponential moving average (EMA), currently at $65,827 — a classic predecessor of a final bear-market capitulation. 

“No matter the structure however, 4 years ago Bitcoin positioned itself for a bearish retest of the 50 Month EMA (purple) to reject and drop lower later. Today as things stand, Bitcoin is technically positioned for the same thing,” He also added.

Chart of BTC/USD for one month with 21 and 50 EMA. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com