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Bitcoin has reached a high of $108,000 and is consolidating following Tuesday’s new record. Charles Edwards is the founder of digital-assets hedge fund Capriole Investments. He believes that prices could rise by at least half in November. According to his most recent market analysis note, “Saddle Up,” In a report released on the 27th of May, the Manager argues that an unusual confluence between macro, technical, on-chain and other factors have created “the most bullish technical setup we could ask for for Bitcoin at all-time highs.”
A Bitcoin 50% Rally Is “Conservative”
Edwards first set up the call late in April when Bitcoin’s price was near $93,000. “We noted the bullish Bitcoin setup and expectation to be ‘pushing new all-time highs […] quite soon’,” He remembered. Edwards noted that one month after the initial market rise, the price has increased by 16%. This confirms his original view, and clears the decks, according to Edwards, for the subsequent leg up.
Edwards defines the core of the thesis as the “Hard Asset Era.” A breakout in the Gold-to-S&P 500 ratio above its 200-week moving average signals that investors are again favouring scarce stores of value over equities.
Such regimes have a long history. “sticky,” He writes that the subsequent events will be discussed. outperformance of gold In previous cycles, the overstock has varied from 150% up to 650%. “If you think gold has already rallied a lot, think again,” Edwards stated. On that analogue, Bitcoin — which tends to lag gold by several months — could be poised for even steeper gains.
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Recent policy reforms have consolidated the rotation. Basel III’s rules raised gold to Tier-1 status by 2022 and forced banks to secure paper holdings with metal. Meanwhile, last year the approval of Bitcoin exchange-traded fund spot opened up institutional access to the cryptocurrency.
Washington’s establishment of the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) in 2025 added an extra layer of legitimacy at state level. In the same context, inflation is persistent. tariff frictions Demand for neutral political assets has been boosted by the Russian precedent of freezing its foreign exchange reserves.
Bitcoin Technicals and Basic
The sharp rise above $90,000 and the subsequent fall to just $75,000 in April is a textbook example of a rapid market structure. “fake-out” — a failed breakdown that often precedes powerful upside trends. The weekly close is above $90,000 “marked the start of a new trend,” Edwards argues that the level of $104,000 is the first defence. “As long as price is above $104K, this is the most bullish technical setup we could ask for,” In his writing, he reduced risk management near-term to a simple number.
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Capriole’s machine-learning-driven Bitcoin Macro Index, which blends more than 100 on-chain, macro and equity-market variables, continues to register in “bullish growth.” Capriole and US Liquidity remain supportive. “Volume Summer” Metric confirms trend in increasing trading activity. The firm claims that the three to five-month historical lag between Bitcoin and gold rallies is a factor. “a 50 %-plus rise over the next six months is a conservative target.”
Policy Wild Cards
Policy is the most obvious threat to this projection. Edwards warns that the United States has a 30-60-day window to negotiate a deal with China or the European Union on tariffs. If they fail, it could affect their risk appetite. He warns also that “Bitcoin-treasury arbitrage” — whereby corporates issue low-cost debt to accumulate BTC — could amplify downside in a future deleveraging, though leverage levels remain manageable for now.
Capriole is still holding up for the time being, thanks to a combination of technical strength, a confirmed bull market, and an improving fundamental picture. “very optimistic about the mid- to long-term potential for both gold and Bitcoin.” As long as the market holds above that $104,000 weekly pivot, Edwards suggests investors should — in his own closing words — “saddle up.”
BTC was trading at $108 005 as of press time.
Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com
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Source: www.newsbtc.com
