Bitcoin Reset Complete? Ostium Sees Explosive Move To $133k

Ostium Labs Market Outlook No. 55 argues that Bitcoin’s higher-timeframe bear structure has now survived last week’s volatile and points upwards “back to the highs,” Spots above $107,000 are available. “Whilst we trade above $107k, I think the next move is back to the highs, with $112k likely to act as local support,” The note adds that the firm expects the price to continue trading into “that confluence of overhead resistance at $133k by month-end.”

This week, the team refers to last weekend’s deleveraging event as “great reset“, arguing that the biggest liquidation in crypto history eliminated excess leverage without affecting weekly structure. Ostium interpreted the fact that the trend remains positive on the higher timeframes, as a confirmation of the bullish momentum. The exact definition of invalidation: “A weekly close below last week’s low is now the obvious invalidation… close through $107k… and we have a more pressing concern, where we undoubtedly then trade into $99k.”

Ostium’s daily chart shows a sweep-and reverse-sequence. The price twice reached the previous range’s high, near $126.3k. It failed to stay above $123.8k. “collapsed,” ultimately wicking into the 200-day moving average—an area the desk had flagged as a likely terminal level for any early-October capitulation.

This view will not leave you in any doubt: “Anyone expecting sub-$100k will remain sidelined for a long time—if you didn’t get it on the largest liquidation event in crypto history, I don’t think you’re getting it until we enter a bear market.” The only way to invalidate a trade on this timeframe would be if the daily close is below the 200 DMA. This would bring the 360 DMA into play, and Ostium’s. “line in the sand for a full-blown flip into bear market territory.”

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It is crucial to consider the path of the asset. Ostium believes that prior highs of around $112,000 will act as support to form a new low. “acceptance back above ~$116k” Set a Rotation to the Top of the Range at $123.8k. “price discovery beyond that.” Near-term, the desk is surprising to be a punch. “Gun to my head I think we trade $125k by early next week and $133k by month-end.”

For traders, the preferred long setup is early-week weakness into $110k–$112k to establish a higher low, using a daily close below $107k (hard stop $105k) as risk, and targeting at least $121k with scope for much higher. A counter-trend short, by contrast, would require a grind up into the $121k confluence, a rejection and daily close back below $118k, and then a fade into the $110k–$112k zone—only if the higher-low hasn’t already formed.

Ostium believes that the position evidence supports its reset then extend thesis. Binance Net Longs are reverted to their original value. “Liberation Day” lows, compressed three-month annualized basis, and fresh liquidation maps for one-week and one-month horizons—all consistent with a cleaner tape for trend continuation.

This week’s calendar is packed with events, but it can be navigated: this will be a week of speeches (PowellThe US Industrial Production, Philadelphia Fed Survey, NY Empire State Manufacturing Print, Bailey and Lagarde. Ostium’s framework views these events as catalysts, rather than trends. So long as $107,000 is maintained and $112,000 acts as a launching pad, the structural bias will remain higher towards $133,000.

This thesis relies on a binary psychology of investors after the purge. “These sorts of events mark turning points: either you are now cemented in your belief that… the bear market has begun… or you are cemented in your belief that the leverage washout gives us the runway for higher for longer prices into Q1 next year,” Ostium writes. It is clear that the desk has a strong position in favor of Bitcoin. “looks more bullish today than it did at the beginning of last week.”

Ostium’s asset cross-read tilts positive for crypto beta if conditions in the near term align. Ethereum’s weekly structure “looks nothing like a top,” With a close decisively above the resistance trendline and $4,400 being expected to trigger a new high; The Team believes “ETH trades through $4,950 within 10 days… toward $5,750 in November,” The Q4 decline is likely to occur.

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On ETH/BTC, the desk calls last week’s flush into 0.0319 a higher-low and anticipates ETH outperformance into year-end, contingent on reclaiming 0.0375 and eventually breaking the trendline—a dynamic that, if realized, could cap BTC dominance without undermining Bitcoin’s own trend. DXY’s rally is seen as being late stage: resistance at 100, and an upcoming rollover will reduce the macro headwinds on risk assets.

For US equities, Ostium still expects “higher for longer,” Looking for new SPX highs at month’s end, and an impressive November with the buyback blackouts ending and as earnings season continues.

Last but not least, “OTHERS,” The altcoins index printed an historic wick at the 360-week MA, before recovering support. “utterly decimated,” Ostium now expects a higher local low, a November reclaim of the yearly open near $335bn, and, if confirmed, a push toward cycle and ATH resistance—conditions that usually track with a healthier, less fragile Bitcoin uptrend.

The desk message, taken together, is consistent in timeframes, assets, and asset classes: the reset worked, invalidation at $107,000 is obvious, $112,000 is the pivot point, and $133,000 is the upside waypoint. In addition, macro-calendar is more likely to modify the course than derail it. As Ostium summarizes, “Whilst we trade above $107k… the next move is back to the highs.”

BTC is currently trading for $111,509.

Featured Image created using DALL.E and chart from TradingView.com