Takeaways from the conference:
- Bitcoin futures and options are indicating a low probability of BTC reaching 84,000 dollars in May.
- The accumulation of Bitcoin by companies listed on the stock exchange and the increasing inflows into Bitcoin ETFs reduces mining demand.
Bitcoin (BTC) reclaimed the $78,000 level amid broader risk-on sentiment, as the S&P 500 Index jumped to an all-time high on Friday. Options markets have priced in 25% of the odds that Bitcoin’s price will be above $84,000 at the end May despite a 15% gain over the last 30 days.
Even though institutional demand is strong, derivatives markets are skeptical that they will continue to grow.
Deribit offers Bitcoin Monthly Options. Source: Deribit
Options to buy Bitcoins with a strike price of $84,000 and a 29 May expiry traded at $1,063. Given that there are still 27 days until the expiration date, it is estimated that Bitcoin’s price will rise by 8% this month. Bitcoin put options (sell) have traded consistently at a higher premium in the last month. This indicates a greater demand for price protection.
Bitcoin options 30-day delta skew (put-call) at Deribit. Source: Laevitas
The delta skew measures how far apart put and call option prices are. This usually varies between -6% and +6% on balanced markets. Indicator jumps over the neutral threshold of 6% when traders refuse to accept downside exposure. Similar trends have also emerged in BTC Futures Markets.
Bitcoin futures 2-month basis rate. Source: Laevitas
Bitcoin monthly futures are usually priced at an 8% to 10% premium to spot rates to compensate for capital cost. This metric, however, has shown weakness in the last 30 days. Bitcoin’s year-to date decline of 12% in 2026 can partially explain the lack of demand from bullish investors for leveraged positions.
Spot ETFs, listed companies and other institutions can accumulate bitcoin
The US listed spot Bitcoin ETFs tell a very different story. While the derivatives market is not confident that Bitcoin will ever reach $84,000 in value, they are able to do so because of their US listing. The instruments received $1.3 billion of net inflows in March. $2 billion in AprilThis is driving the total net asset value above $100 billion. This is a common metric used to gauge institutional investor demand.
Related: Bitcoin’s surge to $77K pressures shorts, but absent spot and long leverage caps rallies
US-listed Bitcoin ETFs net monthly flows in USD. Source: SoSoValue
Similar to listed companies, they have also added massive Bitcoin positions The last 30 days have seen a rise in the reserves of many companies. The companies include Strategy (MSTR US), Metaplanet (3350 JP), 929 BTC, and 56235 BTC. The companies reduce the pressure on them to sell their Bitcoins by purchasing more than five months worth of mining.
Lack of demand for bullish Bitcoin exposure derivatives does not negate the chances that BTC prices will reach $84,000 by the end May. Bullish momentum is expected to continue so long as there’s a strong institutional appetite.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
