Total Bitcoins (BTC( supply of profit) is at 60.6% as we move into a historical range associated with resets in the market cycles. This metric had previously fallen to 50.8% in February, its lowest since January 2, 2020. A large number of investors were left at breakeven level or at loss.
In the past, similar conditions have been associated with strong upward movements. BTC began trading in January 2023 at $16,682 with profitability levels of 51%. In 2025 it soared 655% to 126,000.
In March 2020 the BTC price was $6,500 and profit total fell to below 50%. This led to a rise in BTC prices in 2021, which reached $69,000.
Profitability of Bitcoin returns to previous market cycle levels
Over the past five years, the 50–60% profitability range has repeatedly Marked times when many holders sat close to the BTC basis cost. This reduces the unrealized gains on the network, and the incentives to sell at a weakness.
Note that this metric doesn’t pinpoint the bottom of a market. The metric highlights a region where accumulation over the long term has resulted in high returns, while downside selling pressure has eased.
During previous cycles, Bitcoin prices have reached their lowest levels when the net unrealized profits/losses (LTH-NUPL), as shown during the 2015-2018 and 2022 bear market, turned negative. The long-term holders were at a loss during this phase.
The current LTH/NUPL reading Because the average supply profit has declined to the lowest levels of the current market cycle, the profitability for long-term investors is still comfortable.
This difference highlights the shift in market conditions. Corporate entities and exchange-traded fund (ETF) spot funds now control a growing portion of Bitcoin’s supply. They collectively hold close to 15,8%, or 3,319 677 BTC.
This group of participants operates with a long-term holding period, and is less sensitive to price fluctuations.
The result is that the BTC profitability compression does not lead to the forced sales of long-term investors seen during previous cycles, such as 2015, 2018 and 2022.
The total profit of the stock may return to historical accumulation levels, but the profitability for long-term holders remains high.
Related: Bitcoin in ‘later stages’ of bear market: Watch these BTC price levels
BTC Exchange flows are aligned with models of valuation
On March 25, the short-term BTC flow to Binance dropped to 25,000 BTC. Darkfost, a crypto analyst said It is now a market low. During the sell-off in early February, it was around 100,000 BTC. This decrease shows that the more recent market participants are no longer selling in a reactive manner.
GugaOnChain, a crypto analyst noted The valuation models may help to identify the areas of greater market stress for BTC. Metrics like market-value-to-realized-value (MVRV), NUPL below -0.2 and Puell Multiple near 0.35 are all indicators of undervalued and high retail pressure.
The indicators are not able to pinpoint the exact market bottoms. However, they do highlight regions where historically, downside risks have been relatively limited compared with long-term upward trends, providing a more accurate view of global market positioning.
Related: Bitcoin dips 3% as analysis says $70K BTC price ‘not obviously bearish’
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Source: cointelegraph.com
