Bitcoin (BTC), regaining from a critical on-chain zone of support, is now in the focus of bulls. The $78,000 price level has been pushed back into their sights.
Takeaways from the conference:
- BTC wants to see a return to $78,200 – the price realized of BTC that was held between three and six months.
- Bitcoin’s price could rise above $100,000 if the move is sustained above this base cost.
BTC short-term holders claim $71,400 as cost basis
Bitcoin surged by roughly 2.5% in the past weekend and reached $74,000 Sunday.
The low local price was close to BTC’s realized price after three-to-six months of holding (orange), which is a group often used as a gauge for medium term investor confidence.
BTC real price by price vs. age. Glassnode Source
realised
Glassnode reported that Bitcoin was valued at $71,400 by Marcus Corvinus. “strongest near-term support.”
“This cohort is still holding profits, creating a strong incentive to defend the level,” Corvinus said Posting on Sundays
Analyst highlights $78,200 as the next potential upside target for Bitcoin The level is aligned with the price realized of BTC for the past three to six month (yellow). Bulls dropped the level in the market crash of October 2025.
What happens when Bitcoin increases in price above the 3m-6m basis cost?
Since 2017, Bitcoin’s rise above its 3-to-6-month cost-basis (yellow), has been accompanied by higher returns on longer-term timeframes.
BTC’s average gain following similar breakouts is 2.3% over the next 30 days. This increases to 21.9% after 90 days and 36.6% after 180.
BTC’s 3-to-6-mo cohort realized the price against price. Source: Glassnode
Bitcoin is currently trading at $74,000. This would suggest upside targets in the range of $75,700 within a month, $91,200 after three months and $101,100 over six months.
Related: Bitcoin doesn’t need a fresh narrative to reclaim $100K: Analyst
Signals have been reliable for longer periods of time. Bitcoin was profitable in just 54.2% (of cases) after a single month. However, this rate jumped to 66.7% (3 months), and then to 79.7% (6 months).
Bitcoin Bear Flag can still ruin upside sentiment
Bitcoin’s recovery is occurring at the lower edge of a “bear flag”, which keeps a cautious outlook.
Bitcoin has been falling sharply from the highs it reached in 2026 at $98,000. The price is now stabilizing around the flag’s trend line.
BTC/USD Daily Chart TradingView
BTC’s rebound could take it to BTC’s flag upper boundary, which is near the Fibonacci Retracement Level of 0.7886 and also the 3-to-6-month Holder Cost Basis.
This is what makes $90,000 the key upside target in the coming months Bulls will defend current support areas if they can.
Conversely, a daily close below the lower trend line would risk confirming a breakdown, opening the door to a deeper decline toward the $50,000–$60,000 range, depending on the exact breakdown point.
If this is the case, then the recent rebound from the holder-cost basis support will look like more of a relief movement within a larger downtrend rather than the beginning of a sustainable recovery.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
