The key takeaways:
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Bitcoin’s target could be $170K if the M2 global money supply reaches $55,48 trillion, a record.
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BTC prices historically trail M2 breakouts. Past patterns suggest imminent upward movement.
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BTC Bulls are fueled by a weakening US Dollar, as DXY is down 10.8% for H1 2025.
BitcoinBTCAs global liquidity (M2), which measures the money supply in general, reaches a new high of $55.48 billion on July 2,, could reach $170,000.
Bitcoin follows typically the breakout of M2
M2 aggregates US-dollar adjusted liquidity from the US and Eurozone as well as Japan, the UK and Canada.
The M2 indicator will rise when the M2 value increases. more money is circulating Liquid assets include bank accounts, checks, and other liquid financial assets. The surplus liquid assets can be used to increase the capital flow into “riskier assets” Cryptography is a good example.
Bitcoin has historically followed global and US M2 supply with a 3–6 month lag, especially during liquidity shifts. In some cases, like the April 2025 breakout above $100,000, the lag was just 1–2 weeks.
BTC rallied in times of low M2 but such movements are often unsustainable.
The current cycle could be supported not by speculation, but real liquidity.
“As global money supply expands, Bitcoin’s next target sits around ~$170K, following the flow,” Says an analyst Crypto Auris.
Many analysts predicted that the BTC price to reach the $150,000-200,000 range By 2025, the rise in temperatures will have a significant impact on global warming. institutional demand via ETFs The following are some examples of how to get started: corporations.
Bitcoins rally as USD weakens
A weakening US Dollar is causing a growing demand for Bitcoin.
The US Dollar Index DXY has declined 10.8% since 2025’s first half, which is the worst performance of any H1 period since 1973 when the Bretton Woods System collapsed.
Bitcoin, on the other hand, gained 13,25% during the same time period. This shows a correlation between the dollar and bitcoin.
Historically, major divergences between Bitcoin and the dollar Have signalled key trends reversals.
Rising DXY, and declining BTC in April 2018 and march 2022 preceded the bear market. The divergence that occurred in November of 2020 signaled the beginnings of a significant rally.
BTC & DXY were almost moving in lockstep up until the beginning of 2024. The divergence became evident in April 2025 when DXY was below 100 for first time in 2 years.
Related: Standard Chartered expects Bitcoin to hit new highs of $135K in Q3
This could be the start of a Bitcoin trend if past patterns are repeated. A prolonged dollar decline could intensify this movement beyond Bitcoin’s usual cycle behavior.
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Source: cointelegraph.com
