Bitcoin (BTC), which is a cryptocurrency, has started the third week in September at a level below the key support levels for weekly trading.
- US Federal Reserve expected to increase interest rates on Wednesday by 0.25% amid persistent inflation and an increasing oil price squeeze.
- The Senate will vote on whether to advance the crypto CLARITY Act on Tuesday — a key moment for market sentiment.
- Bitcoin ended last week near its 50-week Moving Average of $77,400. However, a bullish RSI Divergence is still playing out.
Fed Warsh is seen increasing rates despite Trump’s pressure
This week, the Federal Reserve is the focus of attention for traders in risk assets as the decision made on Wednesday regarding interest rates sets the tone.
On the basis of high inflation, and the cautious remarks of chair Kevin Warsh the Fed is expected to raise rates by up to 25 basis point to 3.75-4.0% despite dissenting voices in support of keeping them where they are. This is similar to the Fed’s rate decision in July. when policymakers held rates While several voices called for an increase in the hike. Now, Warsh faces pressure Donald Trump, the US President. He has promised to not only avoid an increase but also to implement rate reductions.
CME Group: Latest data FedWatch Tool The odds that rates will remain at current levels are only 13.3% as of the date of this article. The implied probability for a rate freeze was higher than 40% a week ago. However, it has dropped in light of the recent data on inflation and the rise in oil prices due to the Middle East crisis.
Fed target rate comparison for September FOMC (screenshot) Source: CME Group
The August Consumer Price Index and Producer Price Index both showed a rise in prices. avoided major upside surprisesOil prices are now above $100 per barrel, and there is no sign of an end in sight to the current supply crisis.
WTI Crude Oil One-Day Chart CFDs. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Trading resource The Kobeissi Letter, in a recent article, warned of the severe energy shock that would result, since 30 million barrels of oil per day won’t be able to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, or Saudi Arabia’s East-West Pipeline, and the Bab el-Mandeb Strait is now at risk.
“Even after accounting for some overlap between these routes, the scale of the potential disruption is enormous relative to the ~100 million barrel per day global oil market,” It is a good idea to get a hold of someone else. wrote Posting on X.
Kobeissi noted increasing inflation expectations among US consumers, who see price increases hitting 4.6% over the coming year — 1.1% more than their sentiment at the start of 2026 — with gas prices and trade tariffs frequently referenced.
US consumer inflation expectations data. Source: Kobeissi’s Letter X.com
CLARITY Act rewrite faces crucial vote
The CLARITY Act will be debated by US officials on Tuesday. This is a day before the Fed’s decision.
Senate Republicans on Monday released their “Bill of Rights” “last, best and final offer” Bipartisan discussions are underway to ensure that the industry has access to the Act’s text. clear legal framework In the US.
“After a year of intense daily bipartisan negotiations, this bill is ready,” Senator Cynthia Lummis released a 635-page revised proposal. said In an official announcement
“President Trump voluntarily agreed to unprecedented ethics restrictions, holding every federally elected official, judge, and their spouses to some of the toughest ethics restrictions in US history.”
The CLARITY will now face a vote on the procedural question at 2:15pm ET, which requires 60 votes in order to pass. The result could cause a sudden spike in volatility. The bill can be debated in the Senate if it passes its current form.
“A no vote on Tuesday means opposing real ethics reforms on politicians’ personal investments, handing American leadership in digital assets to our foreign competitors, and leaving Americans with zero protections in the digital asset markets,” Lummis is now added.
Tyler Williams: Crypto Policy Insider formerly a crypto adviser Scott Bessent from the US Treasury was positive about Tuesday’s prospects. speaking Kyle Chasse is the podcast host for Saturday.
“What are the odds? I think they are better than they have ever been. We are closer — we are on the precipice of this becoming law,” He said.
The following are some of the ways to get in touch with us. PolymarketCLARITY becoming law in 2026 is unlikely. The odds of CLARITY becoming law in 2026 were only 34% at the time this was written. The last time odds were higher was at the beginning of August.
Odds on the CLARITY Act becoming law. Source: Polymarket
CLARITY: Fed de-risks crypto traders in anticipation of CLARITY
According to the latest analysis of the market, traders have been removing risks in advance of Tuesday and Wednesday’s major events.
Crypto sentiment platform Santiment, which examines changes in open interests (OI) on exchanges around the world, argues that markets have already been prepared for volatility before both CLARITY Act and Fed rate announcements.
“Everyone is watching Tuesday’s cloture vote and Wednesday’s Fed. The positioning data says the market already made its move,” It is a good idea to get a hold of someone else. commented On Monday,
Data from Santiment shows that OI (measured in BTC) fell by 13.5% during the week ending Sept. 11 from 321,497 BTC down to 278,151 BTC. The subsequent rebound was modest. Meanwhile, the spot price dropped by 5%.
“Positioning sits about 20% below where it was before the mid-August rally,” Santiment added
Bitcoin OI Data Bitcoin OI data.
The funding rate continues to be bullish
BTC/USD trading at $80,000 is a sign of a bullish market. new research CryptoQuant is a blockchain analytics platform.
After a period of negative rates that started in early March, the aggregate funding rate across all exchanges has gradually increased since the end May. Funding rates show the trader’s balance between long and short term interest.
“After a disbelief phase, during which funding rates reflected one of the most bearish sentiments ever seen in Binance derivatives, the buildup of shorts that followed a -52% drawdown ended up fueling May’s rally,” CryptoQuant posted a blog on Sunday.
“It’s particularly interesting to observe how this bearish consensus has consistently shown up whenever Bitcoin was nearing the end of a correction.”
CryptoQuant data shows Binance has seen negative funding rates for the past 30 days, which coincided with both bear markets in Bitcoin and major corrections inside bull markets.
Bitcoin 30 day summed Funding Rates (Binance). Source: CryptoQuant
Previously, Cointelegraph reported The analysis warns of the short-term nature of the market’s momentum, which is largely driven by derivatives.
Bitcoin’s weekly support slipping from bulls’ grasp
Bitcoin price did not defend an important support level in Sunday’s closing of the week, and ended at around $76,800.
Related: Here’s what happened in crypto today
BTC/USD one-hour chart. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
Rekt capital, an analyst and trader, commented Sunday on the comments made by Rekt. reiterated It was estimated that to maintain the $78,300 at the close of each week, it would be necessary. He warned that if he failed to act, Bitcoin would be able to replicate its unsuccessful breakout in early May.
Rekt’s accompanying graph shows BTC/USD continue to form a lower-high pattern, maintaining the long-term bull-market structure.
BTC/USD one-week chart. Source: Rekt Capital on X.com
Bitcoin closed also below its exponential moving average (EMA), which is at $78,380. This trendline must be cleared in order to sustain a bullish trend. Rekt Capital regarded the 21st-week EMA, which is $72,270, as the bulls’ next marker in the sand.
“Both of these EMAs tend to act as support in a Bull Market. So if they can’t hold sustainably as support then that would be a confirmation of the trend not being in a full-blown Bull Cycle yet,” He told X-Followers
Closed but preserved weekly bullish divergence Bitcoin’s relative stability index (RSI) is continuing to reach higher lows.
Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView. BTC/USD chart for one week with the 21, 50 EMA, RSI. Source: Cointelegraph/TradingView
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Source: cointelegraph.com
