Bitcoin price pullback to $91K possible, but onchain data highlights ‘healthy’ market fundamentals

The Key Takeaways

• Bitcoin’s return over the past year and its realized price indicate that BTC has strong support and is undervalued.

• Standard Chartered estimates a Bitcoin price target in the $110,000–$120,000 zone by Q2 2025.

• The positive funding rate indicates that a long-term squeeze of $90,500 is possible.

Bitcoin’s (BTC) A weekly close of near $94,000 produced a total return year over year of impressive 53.61%. After the first halving of 2024 the market has now moved away from its early 2024 phase. “mature bull trend” Based on the growth of onchain, not on speculative fever. 

Bitcoin’s fundamentals win over speculation and fear

Bitcoin researcher Axel Adler Jr. pointed out It is noteworthy that year-onyear (YoY), the realized price, which measures the average BTC value at the time of its last movement, has risen by 61.82%. market value to realized value’s (MVRV) Decline of 8.98%. The long-term owners are raising their base prices faster than price rises by speculators, which is good for the market cycle. 

This negative MVRV indicates that Bitcoin’s fundamental value is below what it was a year earlier, and that this pattern usually precedes major rallies. Analysts are looking for new highs over $110,000, if the demand increases.

Bitcoin’s actual price, by cohort, shows that speculative premiums are cooling, with the cost-basis of one-month holders being 5% lower than those for six-month cohorts. This market is similar to past accumulation stages, with only five or six weeks left until 180 days when the momentum usually accelerates.

Geoffrey Kendrick is Standard Chartered’s Head of Digital Assets Research. prediction Bitcoin’s new record high will be $120,000 during Q2 of 2025. This is due to strategic reallocation away from US assets. Kendrick said that the high US Treasury premium and BTC price correlate with each other, indicating US investors have been seeking non-US assets after President Donald Trump’s trade war started on April 2.

Related: Bitcoin could hit $210K in 2025, says Presto research head

Bitcoin futures markets hint at “long squeeze” Under $91,000

Bitcoin’s financing rate is now positive. This indicates that traders are betting on higher prices than $90,000. Bitcoin’s short-term funding rate turned negative between April 24 and 25. This prompted speculation about a possible long squeeze which could drive prices to $97,000. The market dynamic changed when the funding rate flipped positive. This could result in a long-term squeeze. 

The Long Squeeze is an event in the market whereby a sudden drop in price forces long-term traders with excessive leverage to liquidate, increasing the fall through massive liquidations.

Bitcoin’s price has dropped by 1.58% since the New York session began on April 28. BTC could drop to as low as $95,500 in the coming days.

The chart shows that bullish momentum has begun to fade. BTC may retest the Fair-Value Gap (FVG), which is between $90.500 and $88,750, on the 4-hour graph.

Price also showed a negative divergence from the relative Strength Index (RSI), after failing to reach a price above $95,000.

This article contains no investment recommendations or advice. Each investment or trading decision involves some risk. Readers should do their own research before making any decisions.