Bitcoin fell to $108,300 from $114,000 briefly on Tuesday. Traditional safe-haven assets also continued their decline.
Spot gold has fallen to $4,034 for an ounce. This is a continuation of its steep losses earlier this week. Meanwhile, silver remains down by nearly 8%.
It is important to note that the word “you” means “you”. moves follow remarks Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller announced his plans to a “skinny master account” program that would allow eligible fintech and crypto firms limited access to the Fed’s payment system — a step seen as integrating digital assets more directly into traditional finance.
The Fed made those comments at the Federal Reserve’s first-ever Conference on Payment Innovation Washington. Bitcoin initially rose more than 5 percent to $114,000 but since has fallen back to $108,000.
Social media posts suggested that precious metals may be losing their appeal as investors shift to bitcoin. This is in line with the latest Bitwise Asset Management Report. Crypto Market Compass report.
Bitwise said a modest 3–4% shift of capital from gold into crypto could theoretically double Bitcoin’s price, given the relative size difference between the two markets.
Geoff Kendrick, Standard Chartered geoff Kendrick wrote The trade war may cause Bitcoin’s price to temporarily drop under $100,000, but the fall could be temporary. Recent gold weakness is known to have sparked Bitcoin rallies in recent years.
Bitcoin Price Prediction Markets are Flashing a Signal
Cryptocurrency prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket are emerging as real-time sentiment indicators For traders, betting on the future price of bitcoin is a good idea. They aggregate the odds of where they think bitcoin is going to end up in 2018.
In October, the traders had predicted that gold would reach a year-end value of $144,000. But, as fear and volatility increased, it has now dropped to approximately $129,000.
The spot price trading well below the forecast indicates fear or potential undervaluation. Trading near or over forecasts suggests market euphoria. When adjusted for forecast volatility, data show that big gaps between them often coincide with the lows of the markets.
It’s fair to say, right now that predictions markets flash a contrarian “fear” signal.
Polymarket may claim 91% accuracy but by removing all outlier bets, that number is closer to 71%. Interestingly, this ratio tends to move opposite the Fear and Greed Index — highlighting undervaluation during fear and overconfidence during greed.
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Source: bitcoinmagazine.com
